November 2018

Daily Market Update Archive

This page features Intelligent Investing’s daily updates of the US stock market, mostly focused on the S&P500, made public by being posted here three to five days AFTER being sent out to Premium Members. To become a Premium Member, please subscribe here. Subscription includes access to one of the best, detailed, up-to-date technical analyses of most US indices, commodities, and many individual stocks you’ll find.

Please click on the hyperlinked blue text to access the updates, which are in PDF format.

Daily update 11.29.2018: Today’s update will be short and sweet. Yesterday I found “… a few more 4th and 5th waves up are required to end this minor-a wave. It is also possible this is already intermediate-a since “b/ii” never materialized. Regardless, I expect major-b to target SPX2830-2930, with a sweet spot of SPX2845-2900.” Today we did get this 1st set of “additional 4th and 5th waves”, which allows me to more accurately count the micro-waves in the current advance, labeled as intermediate-a.

Daily update 11.28.2018: On Monday I concluded “Above SPX2690 opens the door for major-a having completed and major-b to SPX2800s is underway.” …. today we already got our resolve and yesterday’s “1st option; major-b is underway, with an unorthodox major-a low (as described prior), and minor-a of intermediate-a of major-b is forming a diagonal which is close to completion to be followed by a rapid decline (b/ii) before c/iii takes hold.” is now the preferred count.

Daily update 11.27.2018. Let’s start off with saying that albeit the confusing price action over the last 4 days, all price has done is so far and still only reach the ideal b/ii target zone. Thus, there’s really nothing out of the ordinary just yet. The problem for now lies in the fact that A) the drop off the SPX2815 high to last week’s SPX2631 low has taken shape in three waves thus far, with B) the 3rd wave down equal to 0.764x the length of the 1st wave down. And that, my dear readers, is an unusual point for a bottom regardless of what comes next

Daily update 11.26.2018: Over the last 4-5 days I’ve been looking for “minute ii/b underway to the shown grey target zone (Fig 1A), between SPX2675-2718 and ideally between 2689-2703. Note that all bounces in this current market environment have only met minimum requirements (23.6 to 38.2% retraces), so one shouldn’t count on too much upside.” Last week we got SPX2671 twice -4p shy of the lower end of the target zone- and two drops, but no lower lows as price found support at SPX2631 for four days in a row.

Daily update 11.21.2018: Yesterday I was looking for “minute ii/b underway to the shown grey target zone (Fig 1A), between SPX2675-2718 and ideally between 2689-2703. Note that all bounces in this current market environment have only met minimum requirements (23.6 to 38.2% retraces), so one shouldn’t count on too much upside.”SPX2671 may have been all we got -4p shy of the lower end of the target zone- in a flat-correction fashion for the S&P, while the NAS squeezed out a regular zig-zag correction where c=a at today’s high while price did move into the target zone.

Daily update 11.20.2018: Yesterday I concluded “If my count is correct than minute-i of minor-c/1 is soon complete and we should see a short and brief minute-ii bounce before iii of c/3 gets going.” Little did I know that today would provide for (another) extended 5th wave and minute i/a should be complete and minute ii/b underway to the shown grey target zone (Fig 1A), between SPX2675-2718 and ideally between 2689-2703.

Daily update 11.19.2018: In the weekend update I mentioned “Friday’s price action left a lot to be desired but still suggests we should be in minor-b/2 of intermediate-c of major-a, targeting SPX2760-2780 on the S&P500. It depends a bit on how we get there: drop to SPX2700+/-5p and then rally or continue to rally into the target zone. A[n immediate]break below SPX2690 from current levels means b/2 has IMHO already topped.” Well, we got that break below SPX2690 today to as low as SPX2680 and the NASDAQ traded entirely below last week’s low

Daily update 11.15.2018: Over the last few weeks we’ve been nailing all the price targets as yesterday I found for the NASDAQ “minor-a/1 target zone is $6975-7025, which fits with the 76.4% retrace and the v = 1.764-2.000x i target zone.” (Pardon the 47p inaccuracy equalling 0.7%… While for the S&P I determined “For the SPX the downside appears a bit more limited: 2675 +/-5 with a change of 2750, but the 5=1 and 200-223% Fib extensions line up for a higher low.” As IMHO there are five waves down from last week’s SPX2815 and NAS7572 high into today’s low, I will continue to view the current rally as a b/2 wave bounce. You also see’ll on the next page very well why I prefer to view it that way

As I am attending the TradersEXPO in Las Vegas between November 12-14, there will be no daily market updates unless warranted. 

Daily update 11.07.2018: Yesterday I found “… the market pushed the b-wave scenario to the very boundaries, but SPX2757 hasn’t been broken… A move above SPX2757 will IMHO mean minor-b completed at SPX2700.” And over the last few days I provided ”It all depends on how the market will react to the Mid-Term elections.” Well, the market spoke loud and clear today and minor-c of intermediate-b (or major-a) is now underway

Daily update 11.06.2018: Yesterday I found “As long as price remains below SPX2757 and NAS7467 I still foresee a move lower to SPX2680 and NAS7150-7130 before minor-c of intermediate-b takes hold (green dotted arrows). However, a move over both levels means minor-b already bottomed at SPX2700 and today for the NAS at $7256 ….” Well, today the market pushed the b-wave scenario to the very boundaries, but SPX2757 hasn’t been broken.

Daily update 11.05.2018: As long as price remains below SPX2757 and NAS7467 I still foresee a move lower to SPX2680 and NAS7150-7130 before minor-c of intermediate-b takes hold (green dotted arrows). However, a move over both levels means minor-b already bottomed at SPX2700 and today for the NAS at $7256 while a move below SPX2720 means minute-c of minor-b is underway (grey arrows).

Daily update 11.01.2018FYI: As noted yesterday all waves can be one degree higher in case of a Primary IV being underway. Regardless, all price targets remain the same. Thus, minor-a of intermediate-b may have topped as we can count 5 complete waves up off the SPX2603 and NAS6921 lows.