November 2017

Daily update 11/30/2017: Well, in this market simple go with the most Bullish option you can find and that’s the right one. I already almost feel stupid for yesterday’s intra-day update, but as said yesterday’s update: “Once price targets are reached, especially three in a row for standard 3rd, 4th and 5th waves it’s time to listen to the market and become cautious.”

Daily update 11/29/2017: In today’s intra-day update I sent the preferred wave count, as it tagged the ideal 3rd, 4th and 5th waves targets to the T (see green boxes in the ideal wave tracker table below), sometimes only off by mere pennies. The sell-off in tech (especially the FAANG stocks and semi’s ($SOX)) was rather striking and I’ve therefore provided updates on these 4 stocks on the premium member page. When the big names are selling hard, something is going on.

Daily update 11/28/2017: Yesterday’s inside day left it somewhat open to interpretation, but as I said so many times before “it is higher highs and higher lows till it isn’t, while price is in an uptrend channel. Nothing bearish at all.” And “BUT, a break over SPX2606 (today’s high) without dropping to SPX2592ish will mean the in the table shown price targets remain on tap.” Well, did we get that break higher or what?

Daily update 11/27/2017: A flat day today, so there’s not much to add to the past weekend update. I’ll therefore keep it to one page. The preferred and alternate count shown in the weekend update remain (impulse vs irregular flat) with the impulse preferred (85%). Today didn’t change that at all since we got a new intra-day ATHs, thus nothing bearish yet. We need to see consistent lower lows and lower highs before the trend is changing.

Daily update 11/22/2017: Yesterday I concluded “We may get some profit taking over the Holiday; but it should only be corrective (small 4th waves)”. And today certainly looked like that with only a 5p range on the S&P. Hence the wave count and ideal wave tracker table price targets remain the same.

Daily update 11/21/2017: Yesterday I updated my Elliot Wave counts showing that the highest probabilities (70%) were for more upside, even after possible a little more downside (only 8p max). Thus today shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to anybody, as surprises in Bull Markets -as said- more often than not come to the upside. The Elliot Wave counts pointing to the downside were already reduced to 30%, low, probabilities

Daily update 11/20/2017: In the weekend update I presented 3 different counts for the S&P in order of probability

  • micro-1 ongoing with nano-iv at SPX2578 and nano-v to SPX2595 underway (60%).
  • Micro-2 topped at SPX2590, micro-c to SPX2540+/-5 for all of minute-iv underway (30%)
  • Triangle forming (10%)

Although the last thing I want to do is to confuse my readers, I do have to show all the possibilities I see with the latest information at hand as it is also possible that micro-1 of minute-v already topped at SPX2590 and micro-2 is now underway to SPX2570ish or has already bottomed at SPX2578.

Daily update 11/16/2017: Well, that was easy 😊!! Yesterday, the charts strongly suggested “micro-a has likely completed at SPX2577 today and micro-b should now be underway… The ideal target is SPX2578-2588 for this bounce over the next 3-4 days. Then a c-wave down to SPX2540 +/-5 should follow.” And, we got more than we asked for: SPX2590.

Daily update 11/15/2017: Some of you already asked me today if “that was it?” for minute-iv. Since I’ve zero indications that a bottom is in (neither in breadth, nor in TIs, etc); I do continue to expect lower prices. And while yesterday I concluded “Near term price can do some backing and filling first (distribution), but it’s not necessary.” I hadn’t expected a drop that quick. Again: “welcome to the world of a 4th wave, where anything goes.” 😉

Daily update 11/14/2017: Well, true to form, the ongoing 4th wave did the unexpected today: instead of gap fill up; it went down. Welcome to the horrors of a 4th wave. It can do what ever it wants. Unpredictability galore. The bottom line remains that I still expect SPX2540 +/-5 to be reached eventually for minute-iv.

Daily update 11/13/2017: Since last Thursday, and reiterated in the weekend update: “4th waves are (very) hard to foretell as 4th waves can do anything. I prefer the flat correction, possible even irregular.” I’ve been expecting gap fil at SPX2592 since last week too, though we haven’t gotten it (yet).

Daily update 11/09/2017: After today’s intra-day update the market staged its obligatory bounce/rally off the SPX2566 low. The Futures (ES) completed their e-wave as shown in the intra-day update, whereas cash did a 3-wave EDT. Both fully acceptable, especially since the SPX2597 high came within 1p of the ideal “micro-5 = micro-1” extension (see Figure 2). Thus the preferred count remains that minute-iii ended at SPX2597 (80%).

Daily update 11/08/2017: Not too much to add to as the Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT) pattern is still in play and still the preferred Elliot Wave Count (70%) until proven otherwise; especially since price overlapped with the recent SPX2588 high. Nano-d may have had enough at SPX2584 already, and either the dotted or the solid trend lines are in play in defining the EDT.

Daily update 11/07/2017: Yesterday it was determined that “The S&P … has still a little bit of upside potential left tomorrow (to SPX2595) to complete nano wave-c. This is the preferred count.” True to form the S&P tagged SPX2597 and declined 13p. Hence, the Ending Diagonal Triangle pattern is still very much in play and still the preferred Elliot Wave Count (70%); especially since price now overlapped with the recent SPX2588 high

Daily update 11/06/2017: In the weekend update it was discussed that “An Ending Diagonal Triangle, albeit a bit different then shown earlier this week is most likely. It will allow the S&P to move a little above SPX2588, to around SPX2591 for nano wave-c of micro-5, then decline to ~SPX2580 for nano-d, to be followed by a final wave-e around SPX2596-2601 to complete minute-iii; which has been the preferred target zone since the SPX2544 low was struck.”

Daily update 11/02/2017: FB, FIT, FEYE, GPRO, TSLA, YELP and BABA all ended down today and so did the NAS and S&P. The DJIA made a new ATH. AAPL is now up ~2% AH, and should ideally target $174 before moving lower. Not sure how that will play out on the indices tomorrow, considering it is such a heavy weight, but for now the NAS dropped below yesterday’s low and found support right at Monday’s low.

Daily update 11/01/2017: As alerted in today’s intra-day update, the NASDAQ came within 5p off the ideal 138.2% extension of (green) minor-1, measured from (green) minor-2 and started to decline for the rest of the day. See figure 1A. As $6765 has been the target for some time, and especially since the minute-iv low at exactly the 61.8% extension was reached, the text book impulse pattern continues (see insert 1A).