May 2018

Daily update 05.31.2018: With today’s non-follow through price action I want to show the “most” bearish case I am tracking “wave-e of major-4 underway” in some more detail. Although it’s lowest odds (30%) it doesn’t mean it can’t happen, and if the Bears keep pushing then low odds become reality. This means that minor-a of intermediate-e bottomed at SPX2677 on Tuesday and minor-b is now complete at yesterday’s SPX2729 high or still underway…

Daily update 05.30.2018: With today’s price action we can eliminated the “impulsive minute iii, iv down” EWT count, and we’re simple left with what counts best as an ABC down off the first SPX2642 high to yesterday’s low SPX2678 low in the form of an expanded flat (C>B>A). This can either still be intermediate-ii of major-5 or minor-4 of the leading diagonal intermediate-i wave (as shown in yesterday’s update).

Daily update 05.29.2018: With today’s price action we can eliminated the “impulsive minor 3, 4” and “impulsive minute iii, iv” EWT counts, and instead focus on either “intermediate i, ii” or “minor-3, 4 of a leading diagonal count” (see Figure 1, and also Figure 2 A, B).

Daily update 05.23.2018: Yesterday’s sour note continued into this morning, and had we broken below SPX2702 which it looked like it would, I’d adapted the leading diagonal count. But, instead the S&P found support exactly where I thought it would yesterday: “minor-4/minute-iv is turning into a (dreaded) flat correction: symmetry breakdown target of SPX2725 = 2725 – (2740-2725) = 2710” Off by 54c… Oh my oh my 😉

Daily update 05.22.2018: Today ended on a sour note and left us (me 😉) with a bit of a head scratcher, as price failed to move above SPX2742, so here it goes to the best of my knowledge. We could be in an ending diagonal for minor-5: see Figure 1A. Minute-v should now be underway and target ~SPX2752-56.

Daily update 05.21.2018: Not much to add to the weekend update other than that we can eliminate the “already completed 1,2,3,4,5 set up” as price is unable to move below SPX2702. We can therefore continue our focus on the preferred “1,2,3,4 and 5 underway” EWT-count; and the alternate “1,2,i,ii,iii,iv and v of 3 underway” EWT-count.

Daily update 05.17.2018: Inside day today, so very little to add to yesterday’s update. Same parameters in play: preferably minor-5 underway to ideally SPX2672. BUT, below SPX2710 is a first warning for lower prices to come, which is confirmed with a break below SPX2702. Then we can expect SPX2660s. Break above today’s high targets SPX2762.

Daily update 05.16.2018: So far, the market is following the minor-3, -4, -5 script well so I’ll focus on it today. As long as price remains above SPX2702 we should set sights to SPX2762 for the 1.764x extension. A break below SPX2710 will be a first warning that the red arrows instead of the green arrow are in play and we should than expect SPX2660 +/- 5.

Daily update 05.15.2018 As usual there are always many ways we can count the waves in the market. This is one of the draw backs of Elliot Wave, which only really in hindsight or much further along in the price action will give the correct count. But we can work with probabilities. So here it goes: With today’s deeper drop than expected (>5p below the low-end) and based on some great feedback, we can simple count yesterday’s high as minor-3 and today’s low as minor-4.

Daily update 05.14.2018: In the weekend update I presented the 3 main counts: A) Wave-d of an a,b,c,d,e Major-4 triangle is underway: 25%. B) Major-4 triangle completed at  SPX2595, intermediate-i of major-5 underway: 40%. C) Major-4 completed even earlier, minor-1 of intermediate-iii of major-5 underway: 35%. Today, I want to focus on the highest probability count.

Week of 05.07 to 05.11: Due to travels there were only quick updates sent out by email to premium members.

Daily update 05.03.2018: Today’s break -finally- below SPX2625 (and SPX2613) places the Ball now firmly in the Bears camp, albeit today’s strong rally off the lows. And the two main bear counts remain the focus for now:  SPX2579-2568 for the smaller major-4 triangle or SPX2480-2514 to complete the double zigzag. My preference is for the latter.

Daily update 05.02.2018: Yesterday I focused on the Bullish option with a c-wave up to SPX2730 underway. Albeit this is still possible, today’s weak price action left a lot to be desired and followed the bearish script: “IF price stalls below SPX2685 at ~SPX2670 + /-5 (critical level) and drops below SPX2625 then SPX2580 to SPX2450 are next.” So, let’s focus on the Bearish case today,

Daily update 05.01.2018: Yesterday the markets added a bit more upside than anticipated: S&P traded 3p higher than anticipated (SPX2683 vs SPX2780), while today the S&P added a bit more downside than anticipate (SPX2625 instead of SPX2635), but it failed to CLOSE below SPX2635: remember I wrote yesterday “A close below SPX2635 is required to confirm option 2”: