March 2018

Daily update 03.29.2018: The whipsawing continues. Bottoms are being bought, tops are being sold. The two short term counts remain in effect, but with where the market currently is they don’t differ all that much as both still have a c-wave down to finish major-4; one is a minute-c the other a minor-c degree wave. If minor-b is still ongoing it can still target SPX2675-2685.

Daily update 03.28.2018: Again, today left a lot to be desired for the Bulls as they once again could not push above the (green) “support has now become resistance“ (see Fig. 1A). In fact, price followed the red arrows to the T for a bounce, and we should therefore now expect lower. The alternate count remains a more complex minor-b wave to the black downtrend line.

Daily update 03.27.2018. Today left a lot to be desired for the Bulls as they could not push above the (green) “support has now become resistance“ (see Fig. 1A) nor above the prior support line (See Fig. 2 next page). The failure of the ideal A.I. buy signal intra-day and the rapid drop from today’s SPX2675 high means 1 thing for certain: Major-4 is ongoing.

Daily update 03.26.2018: Leave it up to the market to do exactly what everybody thought it wouldn’t do today: rally. Normally selling continues Monday after heavy selling on Thursday’s and Friday’s (latent memory affect: late comers get nervous over the weekend and want to sell), but not in this market.

Daily update 03.22.2018: Albeit the clear lack of an initial impulse down yesterday (3<1<5), the market followed trough as it broke, no simple opened, below SPX2695. As said yesterday “We must see a break below SPX2695 to be more certain SPX2630s are next.” Thus, now things are less muddled, and we can start to form downside targets, both short-, intermediate- and long term as the current decline may come to an end soon.

Daily update 03.21.2018: And the mess continues as also the FOMC meeting today didn’t give much clarity. Figure 1A shows the most bearish scenario with a c=a target of SPX2632, which is very close to the 61.8% retrace of the SPX2533-2789 advance, to possible complete an irregular flat intermediate-ii. But, looking at today’s price action in detail, see Figure 1B, the decline off the SPX2739 intra-day high to the SPX2710 low was NOT and impulse because wave-3 was the smallest wave (see blue, red and green arrows).

Daily update 03.20.2018: The hourly chart shows the mess clearly since the SPX2533 low. I’ve stopped attempting to micro-count it until there’s more clarity. Today the market gave the obligatory (?!) oversold bounce after yesterday’s hourly RSI5 reading registered below 10. Price is still above the black uptrend line and thus in the safe zone (as shown in the weekly digest)…

Daily update 03.19.2018: Today the market invalidated the long-held nested 1,2 count as it traded below SPX2702. Now we have 3 main counts left instead of 4. Makes life a little easier. Let’s assess the daily technical first before addressing the possibilities. The S&P gapped down at the open below the 50d SMA as well as below first (short term uptrend line support).

Daily update 03.15.2018: From an Elliot Wave pure-impulse perspective, the only hope the Bulls have left is the nested i, ii, 1, 2, i, ii count that I mentioned on Tuesday and which is shown in Figure 1. It is alive as long as SPX2702 holds, but a drop and close below SPX2740 (the 61.8% retrace) would but this impulse into serious question.

Daily Update 03.14.2018: Due to family circumstances there’s no daily market update today.

Daily update 03.13.2018: Today we saw a lot more action and despite the 40p drop intra-day it was not unexpected as the current detailed count suggested a micro-4 low at yesterday’s low and thus a micro-5 to be followed, which we got: to SPX2802. This micro-5 has likely topped at today’s high, close enough to the 1.236x extension (2802 vs 2807).

Daily update 03.12.2018: Not much to add to the weekly digest and the i, ii, 1, 2 count remains preferred until proven otherwise, which is a break below ultimately SPX2702. Note this is the price-level necessary to disproof the EWT count, but it is not the same as the level to place stops against.

Daily update 03.08.2018: The Bears are on watch, as the price-action is becoming increasingly more impulsive looking to the upside and corrective to the downside. Hence, my i, ii, 1, 2 count remains preferred as it has been for a while. In the forum today I posted a few updates on the hourly chart, see Fig. 1A, and the price action off the SPX2647 low looks like a (close to) completed 5 waves up,…

Daily update 03.07. 2018: The Bears are on watch, as the price-action is becoming increasingly more impulsive looking to the upside and corrective to the downside. Hence, my i, ii, 1, 2 count remains preferred as it has been for a while. In the forum today I posted a few updates on the hourly chart, see Fig. 1A, and the price action off the SPX2647 low looks like a (close to) completed 5 waves up,

Daily update 03.06.2018: As I suspected, that was a lot to do about nothing. IMHO, the market gave Cohn a middle finger salute and moved on to more important things. The Futures market (ES_F) as shown yesterday retrace 61.8% of its prior advance in a 3-wave fashion, whereas cash retraced only 38.2% (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2A next page).

Daily update 03.05.2018: I continue to use the wave-i, ii count as my preferred count until proven otherwise. Why? 1) Price bottomed last week right in the preferred target zone for wave-ii. No need to overthink that. 2) The entire decline counts best as corrective (3 waves down), especially since the first part (SPX2789->2738) was overlapping on the S&P and especially the NAS and DJIA. See my tweet here.

Daily update 03.01.2018: Using the preferred count, the market remains on track for “intermediate wave-ii between SPX2692-2631”. Given today’s largest bounce since the SPX2789 top, 32p, I shifted the a, b labels. With price already at the 50% retrace of the SPX2533->2789 rally, but with a c=a targeting ideally SPX2645 (green dotted arrow) we’ll have to see what tomorrow brings.