June 2018

Daily update 06.28.2018: Yesterday I reviewed the possible Elliot Wave counts and adjusted them to A) a larger leading or ending diagonal with wave-4 to around SPX2700-2765 and wave-5 should ideally target SPX2850-2875. B) a smaller leading diagonal 1st wave (intermediate-i: SPX2555->2791) already complete and wave-ii underway, targeting possible as low as SPX2645ish.

Daily update 06.27.2018: This correction is full of surprises, twists, turns, sharp drops and rallies. That’s why corrections are so hard to forecast compared to an impulse. Thus, with the market not complying too much, other than a continued overlapping mess, to a nested iii12 setup I am adjusting my preferred counts: anticipated, monitor, adjust.

Daily update 06.25.2018: Over the past days/weeks and restated in the weekly digest I was looking for “Minor-2 to ideally SPX2745-2740…, with a possible shot at SPX2735-2725, even as low as SPX2720.” Today the S&P went, unfortunately, well-below all these targets and stopped at the much more uncommon 0.786 retrace of minor-1. See Figure 1.

Daily update 06.21.2018: The SPX_Futures were at first 10p up overnight but opened lower. Cash followed through and came within one point of Tuesday’s SPX2744 vs SPX2743. Thus, the market chose the lower odds route (just because an Elliot Wave count is low odds doesn’t mean it can happen) and tells us minor-2 is still underway. The preferred count is shown in Figure 1.

Daily update 06.19.2018: The SPX_Futures market count was right (see here), as it minor-2 already underway. Now cash followed up as well, and so far price bottomed right in the ideal SPX2740 + /- 5 target zone. So if “you’d loaded up the boat” as said yesterday I don’t blame ya

Daily update 06.18.2018: The S&P does not want to tip its hand on if Minor-2 is underway, or of we can expect one more rally to SPX2805+/-5 for all of minor-1. Why? Price bottomed right at the typical 38.2% retrace of (minute) wave-iii today (see Figure 1A), which is very typical for a 4th wave to do.

Daily update 06.14.2018: The NDX was up >1%, but only made a 30p (0.4%) new uptrend high to hit the $7291 mark to the T, while the DJIA ended down 0.10% and the S&P -as expected yesterday “end[ed] up being stuck in the middle.”- at +0.25%. The S&P has now been range bound between SPX2775-2790 all week. Often this resolves higher in the form of a bull-flag, which could target SPX2805: 2760->2790 = 30P. 2775+30 =-2805 (not shown here).

Daily update 06.13.2018: The FED delivered on its rate hike and will do a few more this year. Good for your savings 😊The market reacted badly, as expected. That leaves us short term with increased odds of a minor-1 top (see Fig. 1A) as price came within 3.5p of the 1.764x extension (typical for a 5th wave) and in addition reached the nano-v = i extension (blue arrow).

Daily update 06.12.2018: Not much to add to yesterday’s update is we can still have minute-iii at SPX2790 and minute-iv underway or minute-v is already underway targeting SPX2795-2806. A break over SPX2790 means the latter is the case. A break below today’s low at SPX2779 means the former is the case.

Daily update 06.11.2018: When the last 4th and 5th waves of an advance start to wrap up, it always becomes a bit uncertain if there’s one more set of 4th and 5th left or not. Hence the saying “Don’t bank on the last 5th wave”. The preferred count has minute-iii of minor-1 of intermediate-iii at today’s SPX2790 high.

Daily update 06.07.2018: Today the S&P topped at SPX2780 and started its largest decline since the SPX2700 low: 20p. Hence, did minute-iii of minor-1 of intermediate-iii top, or was today’s high at the somewhat odd 150% Fib-extension nano-3 of micro-5. Yesterday I forecasted an y ideal target zone for nano-3 at “SPX2774-2777” and for nano-4 “SPX2663-2666”. Hence, the S&P went 3p above and below; respectively.

Daily update 06.06.2018: The preferred short-term impulse-based wave-count continues to track the market the best and I see therefore no reason to change it. micro-4 of minute-iii of minor-1 of intermediate-iii bottomed already at SPX2740 yesterday and today the market continued along a nice impulse, down to the nano waves.

Daily update 06.05.2018: The preferred short-term wave-count has price now in or already completed (orange) micro-4of minute-iii of minor-1 of intermediate-iii. At SPX2753 price hit the ideal 100% extension for a 3rd of a 3rd wave, which means the (micro) 4th wave bottoms in the 76.4-61.8% target zone, after which the micro-5th wave targets the 138.2% extension at -in this case- SPX2773.

Daily update 06.04.2018: Albeit with today’s follow through price action “break higher over SPX2742” the Elliot Wave counts shown in the recent weekend update do remain the same, but of course with the continued focus and highest odds for the Bullish count: A) Major-4 triangle complete, minor-1 of intermediate-iii of major-5 underway: 50%……..