July 2018

Daily update 07.31.2018: Yesterday we were reviewing the intermediate and long term picture as “Short-term a bounce … from support to SPX2820 cannot be ruled out at this point, given breadth and sentiment extremes.” We got SPX2824. So far so good, but was that all she wrote? Lets take a look at the short term today instead.

Daily update 07.30.2018: Short-term a bounce from the SPX2800 level struck today (and 50d SMA support on the NAS/NDX) is most likely, given breadth and sentiment extremes. With that in mind, let’s zoom out a bit and see what the intermediate to bigger picture POVs are, but lets start with a technical review of the daily S&P500 chart.

No posted updates as I am on vacation; only a few email updates were directly mailed out to premium members.

Daily update 07.12.2018: On Monday I forecasted “Micro-is in this count now underway to SPX2777-2765 before micro-5 takes hold.” Yesterday we got to SPX2771. BINGO! 😊 With the new uptrend high, this count remains the preferred count as it’s tracking the price action the best. Now micro-5 to SPX2805-2810 is underway before minute-ivtakes hold and should bring price back to SPX2785-2780, from which minute-v will target around SPX2830-2835 to complete this uptrend.

Daily update 07.10.2018: While the DJIA logged its best win streak in a month, and the S&P closed at more than a 5-month high today, at time of writing the S&P futures are down 27+ points supposedly on new Trade War Fears (aka Tariffs). So one may wonder “what the heck is going on???”. Well, nothing unusual, really.

Daily update 07.09.2018: The short term count was slightly wrong, but as they say in Monopoly’s Community Chest: “Bank Error in your favor – Collect $200” 😊 Why? Because I missed another first and second wave on the July 5thopen and retrace which was simple hard to see on the 1-min chart as it was so close to the July-3 data I didn’t catch it until today (always review your charts for errors, because we’re all human and make mistakes).

Daily update 07.05.2018: The short term count remains a bit messy over the past three days, so we’ll just look at trendlines instead: see Figure-1. Hence, please don’t focus on the wave labeling as the 2nd SPX2699 low may have been the low as well. Namely, the Bulls managed to break and close above the lower descending trendline, and if the market responds well to the NFP and Tariffs tomorrow, we should see a break above the upper descending trendline (now at SPX742) as well.

Daily update 07.03.2018: Due to the upcoming 4th of July Celebrations tomorrow, today’s update will be brief and early. For now the market still isn’t trending and just keeps whipping around within the 2743 to 2693 range. Neither Bulls nor Bears can keep their momentum in either of their desired directions for much longer than a day or two.

Daily update 07.02.2018: In the weekend update I was looking for “a little more downside to possible as low as SPX2705 (76.40% retrace) before wave-iii/c takes hold to SPX2755-2795.” Well, I got the direction and price target pretty right; albeit off by 7p (please excuse my slopiness 😉).