July 2017

Daily update 07/27/2017: Despite today’s intra-day update, a regular update is warranted. Yesterday, I was looking for a micro-5 wave to SPX2484/87 and we got that at the open today, after which the market started to sell-off: Figure 1A. The sell-off was such that it overlapped first with SPX2472; the first warning sign, and then with SPX2465, the most recent low and prior high; the 2nd warning sign.

Daily update 07/26/2017: Today the S&P500 trade mostly sideways down and has now formed a nice flat pattern: SPX2481-2475. A break above SPX2481 targets, based on symmetry SPX2486. With tech rallying AH, this may very well happen tomorrow

Daily update 07/25/2017: Yesterday, I thought that with GOOGL having topped in intermediate-iii on earnings AH and down 3+% it would be the catalyst for more downside. Wrong! Instead the S&P500 made new ATHs today. And there’s nothing bearish about new ATHs.

Daily update 07/24/2017: Not much to add to the weekend update as the S&P500 ended sideways. The hourly chart (Fig. 1A) continues to show the preferred count, but with minute-iv of minor-5 still unconfirmed. I continue to prefer a stab lower into the ideal target zone, but beggars can’t be choosers and we’ll have to take what the market gives us

Daily update 07/20/2017: The S&P500 reached the ideal micro-5 of minute-iii target zone today: SPX2475-2483, with a high of SPX2478. See figure 1A: Blue target box. If today’s high was all of minute-iii then minute-iv should drop to SPX2461-2451, with an ideal of SPX2454.

Daily update 07/1920/17: The market continues to grind along in a typical impulse fashion. For those who think this is a b-wave; sorry slim change as b-waves don’t behave like this (hitting all the Fib-extensions and retraces to the T) nor do b-waves occur when daily charts are set up as they are now: B-wave flame-up and burn down even faster

Daily update 07/18/2017: I love impulse waves as these are so much easier to track and forecast compared to corrections -especially 4th waves. Today the market did pretty much exactly as anticipated: correct to the SPX2454-2249 target zone for what was likely all of micro-4…

Daily update 07/17/2017: Not too much to add to this weekend’s update. Looks like price is struggling with the 1.618x extension at SPX2462ish and micro-4 should be underway shortly to around the orange box.

Daily update 07/13/2017: Not too much to add to yesterday’s update as the expected higher prices did materialize today. The 1-minute chart of the S&P500 shows a potential ending diagonal forming, which aims at around $2552, which is the 1.618x extension of the SPX2408->2432 move, measured from the SPX2408 low.

Daily update 07/12/2017: As expected, the Bulls pushed the S&P500 into the SPX2437-2452 target zone for either a c-wave or 3rd wave. Given this is a Bull market, and almost all our systems are on a Buy we give the benefit of the doubt to the Bulls: 20% vs 80%; respectively.

Daily update 07/11/2017: When we look at the 1-minute chart of the S&P500; it is possible to count 5 waves up off the SPX2408 low to the SPX2432 high and then 3 waves down to today’s low: wave i, ii or wave a, b? Too early to tell, but both counts suggest more upside as at a minimum a c-wave is needed to ideally SPX2437-2452 (C=A to C=1.618X A).

Daily update 07/10/2017: No need for an extensive daily update as there’s not much to add to the recent  weekend update other that now the VIX also confirmed a “sell the VIX buy the SPX” signal by completing step 3: closing below Friday’s low. Thus the Breadth-VIX-SPX buy indicators are all 3 on buy.

Daily update 07/06/2017: Today the S&P500 followed suit with tech by confirming an OEW downtrend and therewith the major-3 top. Given the weakness of the daily chart (see next page) and the failure for the S&P500 to rally, while the INDU completed 5-waves up on Monday it is becoming prudent to claim the top as well, and start looking for a bottom. NOTE: the top claim in this update was premature and dismissed in the premium members’ weekend update.

Daily update 07/05/2017: The short term EW-count on the S&P500 remains a mess, and can be solved a million ways. Thus let’s focus on the 3 main indices: DOW, SPX NDX that each tell a different story. Starting with the most bullish looking index: the DOW.