January 2018

Daily update 01/29/2018: On Friday the S&P tagged the 1.764x Fib-extension (see Table-1), and started to decline today. Normally the 4th wave will then find support around the 100-76.4% Fib-extension which it so far did. The latter is at SPX2849.06 and price can thus drop marginally lower, before rallying to now ideally the 200% target at SPX2878.

Daily update 01/25/2018: Not much to add today with the flat close other than things are therefore a bit up in the air. Yes, there are very certain days, set ups and price action, but also uncertain days, set ups and confusing price action. Today is one of the latter. Futures gap up but were sold off. Suggests correction ongoing

Daily update 01/24/2018: Also today the market tracked along the impulse-based Fib-extension pattern nicely; topping right inside the ideal target zone for femto-iii; SPX2846-2855, reaching SPX2853 and dropped 28p intra-day, with the negative divergence on the hourly RSI5, right inside the ideal femto-iv target zone (100-76.4% extensions, see Figure 1A). Another forecasted bingo 😊.

Daily update 01/23/2018: And once again the market is tracking along nicely with the impulse-based Fib-extension pattern. Although femto-iii can have topped today at the 1.236x extension at SPX2840, it would look better with another small wave up to SPX2846-2855. There is negative divergence on the hourly RSI5 so we’ll have to see how that plays out tomorrow.

Daily update 01/22/2018: WOW, what a market. Over the weekend it was unclear if pico-4 was developing as a flat, if pico-5 had truncated or was still underway. Well, in this market just go with the most bullish outcome. Bears be damned. Today the market most clearly showed pico-5 is underway and as you are used to by now, it is of course extending as it’s subdividing into a real impulse.

Daily update 01/18/2018: Yesterday the S&P rallied back to SPX2807, where it also topped the day prior to, and today we got a side-ways / consolidation day., as well as an >10p pullback (SPX2807->2793). Thus question remains what we are exactly dealing with. Since no new ATH has been made so far since the SPX2808 high, the more complex pico-4 correction remains preferred.

Daily update 01/17/2018: Yesterday we confirmed pico-3 at SPX2808. Although I was, based on the “rule” (it’s not really a rule, hence the accolades), looking for a more complex 4th wave, which is still possible, it is also possible that yesterday’s low was it for pico-4. Namely, given how strong this Bull has been, SPX2769 may have been it

Daily update 01/16/2018: In the weekend update I was looking for SPX2793-2803 and today we got SPX2808 AND a >10p decline. Hence, according to my preferred count pico-3 has topped and pico-4 is now underway to SPX2770-2748; the 23.6 to 38.2% retraces of all of pico-3 (see Figure 1A, B).

Daily update 01/11/2018: Yesterday I was looking for a move to at least SPX2768 and that’s exactly what we got today.  Although I was also looking for a move complex femto-iv wave, SPX2736 was all she wrote and therewith fulfilled the requirements for this degree 4th wave. Femto-v to ideally SPX2779 is now underway, but may stall at SPX2773, for the ideal v=I relationship.

Daily update 01/10/2018: Yesterday I was looking preferably lower to SPX2727-2739; with an ideal target of SPX2738, based on the weight of the evidence of the charts. That was the correct call and we got SPX2736! 😊 Thus femto-iii is confirmed at SPX2759, as today’s pullback was well over 10p. But, the question remains if today’s low was it for femto-iv.

Daily update 01/09/2018: Well, you know the story by now: femto-iii continues to extend. I wish I could forecast that, but I can’t. I can only go by standard Fib-extensions and retrace and work from there. Anybody who says “told ya so” is just guessing. But, since everybody should be long since last Wednesday (easy 60p so far), it shouldn’t be of any real concern

Daily update 01/08/2018: Not much to add to the weekly digest, other than that… you guessed it…., femto-3 is extending. Next target is now SPX2750 which is the 1.764x extension. Atypical, but we simple hang along for the ride. There’s slight negative divergence on the hourly RSI5, which could be enough to usher in femto-4.

Daily update 01/04/2018: Anticipate, monitor, adjust. Especially the later is a key requirement for market forecasters and analysts and today the market once again required me to “adjust” as it zoomed past the SPX2710-2717 target zone as if it didn’t even exist. Thus, the current up wave off the SPX2674 low is now longer than the prior up wave off the SPX2652 low, which I had originally labeled as pico-3, with pico-4 at the SPX2674 low.

Daily update 01/03/2018: Well, it clearly pays off to switch the EW-count from a Bearish to a Bullish one once the market dictates to, as the S&P already reached the first target zone of SPX2710-2717. There’s possible negative divergence building on the hourly RSI5 and that may usher in nano-iv.

Daily update 01/02/2018Well, the Bulls stick saved it once again as the S&P cash market didn’t overlap with SPX2672 and didn’t drop any lower than SPX2674 on Friday (Futures be damned 😉). And while the weight of the evidence was clearly Bearish after Friday’s price action as shown in the recent weekly digest I really and truly hate flipflopping between the preferred and alternate EW counts, but we’re back to “the probabilities of possibilities: just because something is a low probability doesn’t mean it can’t happen.