February 2018

Daily update 02.28.2018: The impulse EWT-count remains the preferred count. Yesterday I “would ideally like to see a move to SPX2740 for a c=a relationship, as the current decline off the SPX2789 low looks more corrective than impulsive….”, which is what we got as from SPX2739 the largest bounce since the SPX2789 high materialized: 19p and after the market started to decline more rapidly: c-wave.

Daily update 02.27.2018: Yesterday it was still unclear if a 5th wave was underway or if the market had already embarked on its 3rd wave. Hence, why I -besides the TIs turning to buy last Friday- suggested to go long on Monday in case of the latter. Today, however, it seems as if intermediate-i topped and now the NAS and S&P 1-min charts are better aligned.

Daily update 02.26.2018: In the weekly digest I was looking for SPX2800 first and suggested to go long today. So far so good, as today the S&P opened just over its recent SPX2754 high at SPX2757, retested that 2754 high intra-day, liked the breakout, and took off. Question remains if we already have a i, ii wave in place (as per the NAS count shown in the weekly digest and shown here in Fig. 1B) or if this is the 5th wave up of wave-i?

Daily update 02.22.2018: Today’s initial rally was a surprise to me as the Futurs (ES) were down to SPX2683 over night, but managed to open at SPX2710, and today didn’t show much of that overnight decline until later in the day as the S&P made a lower low at SPX2698. Since the SPX2754 low we have SPX2707, 2748, 2701, 2731, 2698 so far.

Daily update 02.21.2018: Although the S&P hasn’t invalidated the possible 5-waves up scenario as it hasn’t overlapped with the green “a/1” high at SPX2673, Fig. 1A, the DJIA is as close as it gets, Fig. 1B. Thus, most likely (95%) only 3-waves up off the SPX2533 and DJIA23354 lows have completed for these two indices (contrary to 5 waves up on the NAS, see Fig. 2).

Daily update 02.20.2018: In the weekend update I suggested stops should be raised to SPX2718, alternatively SPX2690, and those who did the former are now stopped out. Is that good or bad? Sitting on profits is never bad 😊. Why? Because the market can now decide to make 5-waves up off the SPX2533 low or only three.

Daily update 02.15.2018: The markets continue to rally as internal strength (breadth) continues to rise. Price has now surpassed the 50% retrace of the recent SPX2873-2593 decline, and a said yesterday “if it doesn’t hold as resistance than the 62% retrace at SPX2744 is next. The same target zone [SPX2782-2873] remains.”. Thus, those are the next price levels I am looking for.

Daily update 02.14.2018: Yesterday I was “Preferably [looking for] a move lower to the grey target zone of SPX2632-2609 before green c/3 to ideally SPX2757-2847 takes hold, but that’s what I’d like and not necessarily what the market will give.” The Futures market (ES) got there, but cash didn’t. Hence, I got the direction right, but not the magnitude.

Daily update 02.13.2018: The same EWT-counts as presented in the weekend update remain on the table. Figure 1 shows the possible outcomes with possible road maps. Please note that at this stage it’s more of an educated guess than anything else as there’s still not enough price data available to make more reliable projections.

Daily update 02.12.2018: Not too much to add the weekend update as today was no real surprise given the strong bounce off the 200d SMA: follow through was in any way anticipated. Using >20p swings I can already count 5 waves up off the SPX2533 low to today’s high.

Daily update 02.08.2018: Today turned things around and once again affirmed all we can do is to “anticipate, monitor, and adjust” as the S&P and other indices (not ES) made a lower low today. Figure1A shows how we can then interpret the cash market’s price action: minor-1 to SPX2813, minor-2 to SPX2836, minor-3 to SPX2593, minor-4 to SPX2728 and minor-5 underway.

Daily update 02.07.2018: Not too much to add to yesterday’s update other than that my projection is following the market rather nicely (red lines vs actual price action) Minor-a of intermediate-b should ideally have completed (Figure 1A). With the Futures market (ES) already at SPX2655, this sure looks like it.

Daily update 02.06.2018: On Friday and Monday, 89% of NYSE stocks declined. Two back-to-back 89% down days are generally indicative of selling exhaustion, and on que 72% of NYSE stocks advanced today (ref: ISPYETF). This fits with what I would ideally label as a minor-c of all of intermediate-a at SPX2593. The two alternatives are…

Daily update 02.05.2018: WOW, this market made minced meat of everybody’s downside predictions. Including my own. The DJIA had its worst down day (in points, not %) since it’s inception, while the VIX jumped 100% intra-day and the $XIV ETN is being reduced to almost $0 after hours (from $145 a few days ago). Talk about carnage