December 2017

Daily update 12/28/2017: The S&P is still stuck in the 20p trading range (SPX2675-2695), while the NYA continues to make new ATHs daily (not shown). But, as they say: “never short a dull market” and as I said yesterday: “this sideways grind is more indicative of a consolidation before a next move higher.”

Daily update 12/27/2017: Over the past 7 trading days the S&P and DJIA haven’t moved much, while Tech (NAS, NDX) moved down, and the NYA higher. In fact, the S&P closed on December 16 at SPX2675 and today at SPX2683. So much for the Santa Rally, right?! But, this sideways grind is more indicative of a consolidation before a next move higher

Daily update 12/21/2017: The S&P came within 2p of its ATH and then started to decline. There’s now another >10p move since the SPX2676 low and this means that per the preferred count, which has been tracking the market rather well, either nano-e of micro-e is already underway, or that nano-d is subdividing and may want to test the lower orange trendline one more time, which is tomorrow at SPX2676-2682 (See Figure 1: “d?”) before the market moves higher more significantly.

Daily update 12/20/2017: Not much to add to yesterday’s update and my preferred and alternate views of the market. The preferred view remains that nano-d of micro-e of minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3 is underway. See Figure 1A. Today did nothing but follow this EWT count even more as already suggested on Monday. Support is now at SPX2675.

Daily update 12/19/2017: Yesterday’s update concluded “I do expect some short-term weakness given the 43p advance in 2-days and the extremely low CPCE reading.” That was the right and not too difficult call. Now things become again a bit murky. The EWT counts presented yesterday remain the same and the EDT remains the preferred count. In fact, at today’s low the S&P had decline 14p, and therewith makes the alternate i, ii, 1, 2 count (Fig 1B) less probable.

Daily update 12/18/2017: In the weekend update I concluded “Thus, the weight of the evidence [off all charts and indicators analyzed] is still very Bullish.” Well, today underscored that “very Bullish” loud and clear; and price has now reached well into the ideal zone of SPX2675-2725, with an ideal target of SPX2680-2690 I’ve had for some time now. But, in the weekend update I showed that even SPX2735-2745 would be possible.

Daily update 12/14/2017: Yesterday the weight of the evidence made me conclude “There’s not been an >10p pullback on the S&P since the SPX2624 low, but breadth, hourly and daily RSI5 suggest we may see it already tomorrow. It should be short term weakness targeting SPX2650-2655…” So far so good as the S&P hit SPX2652 today

Daily update 12/13/2017: Another day and another ATH for the S&P, DJIA, NYA but still not for the NDX, NAS and RUT. Thus wave-e of minute-v is still underway to SPX2675-2725, with an ideal target zone of SPX2680-90. There was a slight negative divergence on the hourly RSI5 (see Figure 1B) and the market started to decline on that leaving us with a 9.03p move down off the SPX2671.88 high so far. I expect this to become >10p

Daily update 12/12/2017: Not much to add today, as the S&P, DJIA, NYA made new ATHs. The NDX, NAS and RUT not. Thus wave-e of minute-v is still underway to SPX2675-2725, with an ideal target zone of SPX2680-90. Only a break below SPX2624, followed by a break below SPX2606 will make me seriously question if the market has topped. You can stop reading here if you want 😉

Daily update 12/11/2017: Clearly it is a Bull till it isn’t and I’ve been re-iterating this -albeit Elliot Wave Theory-wise things started to look complete- every update (Just read the conclusion of last Thursday’s daily update for example). This also shows the limitations of EWT and why I don’t solely rely on it, but use many technical indicators, market breadth signals etc. to tell me if a top is becoming more likely or not.

Daily update 12/07/2017: Let’s start today with the most important aspect of the recent market action: “The stock market is showing some cracks, and the Trump Rally could be counted as complete. But, there’s been no confirmation of a change of trend yet.” Please keep this in mind. Yesterday’ odds favored for an up day today, which is exactly what we got.

Daily update 12/06/2017: Today was the 4th consecutive down day for the S&P; it’s first since March this year. Since the SPX1810 low made in February 2016, there were 5 consecutive down days in July and the start of the current “Trump rally” ended a 7 day loosing streak. Hence, odds favor for an up day tomorrow.

Daily update 12/05/2017: With the 3rd consecutive intra-day bearish reversal for the S&P things look, well, bearish. In fact, 3 days in a row of such reversals only increases the odds major-3 has topped at SPX2665. I place those now at 80%. However, several individual stocks may still do well and carve out their final advance.

Daily update 12/04/2017: Yesterday evening I sent out a special email, in which I warned that chasing the upside would not be a wise thing to do, and that having been stopped out and/or sold into last week’s strength wasn’t that bad. True to form the market gapped up higher, rallied to a new ATH (SPX2665) within minutes and then dropped 26p to close below Friday’s close.