August 2018

Daily Market Update Archive

This page features Intelligent Investing’s daily updates of the US stock market, mostly focused on the S&P500, made public three to five days after being sent out to Premium Members. To become a Premium Member, please subscribe here. Subscription includes access to one of the best, detailed, up-to-date technical analyses of most US indices, commodities, and many individual stocks you’ll find. 

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Daily update 08.30.2018: Yesterday I concluded “The hourly chart has negative divergence on the RSI5 and may foretell us of a micro-4 wave (>10+p on the S&P) before micro-5 of minute-iii takes price to the ideal target zone [SPX2952-2957].” So far this looks still the case, as the price action off yesterday’s SPX2916 high looks corrective (overlapping abc-waves): See Figure 1.

Daily update 08.29.2018: Isn’t it beautiful when the forecasts track the market along exactly as expected. Certainly makes the trading easier. The SPX 1-min chart shows an attempt at trying to count the move up off the SPX2855 low, but take it with a grain of salt for now. Instead, please look at Fig 1B, where I’ve plotted the minuteminor and intermediate-wave Fib-extensions based on the ideal “Fibs” for waves

Daily update 08.28.2018: Really not much I can add to my current analyses and POV of the markets other than the S&P, NAS, NDX made new ATHs today, while the DIA and NYA are inching ever closer. Once these two start making ATHs – with the DIA now just a little over 2% away from it (which would bring the S&P to 2960)- we should start to get much more cautious on the long side.

Daily update 08.27.2018: Well, as expected from the weekend update as well as all the prior daily updates over the last few weeks: wave 3 of 3 is here. This is the money making wave. If you can’t make it here, you can’t make it anywhere. The preferred count has price in minute-iii of minor-3 of intermediate-iii.

Daily update 08.22.2018: If I hadn’t told you yesterday and/or wouldn’t have checked you wouldn’t have know today the futures were down to SP2846 yesterday evening because all we go today was a 2p lower open, drop to SPX2856; the 23.6% retrace of all of minute-i, and then a bounce: see Figure-1.

Daily update 08.21.2018: In the weekend update I was looking for “..a bit more upside to complete minute-i at a minimum of SPX2863-2866 followed by a small retrace to possible SPX2843-2853 (resistance becomes support) for minute-ii [as] the most likely short-term scenario.” And yesterday I prefered “to view [the S&P in] nano-v of micro-5 of minute-i. Although I prefer to see a move to SPX2863 at a minium,…” Well, today we got SPX2873.23: a new ATH by a whopping 0.36p. Bear markets don’t make ATHs, Bull markets do.

Daily update 08.20.2018: Not much to add to the weekly digest as price continued to move higher as expected in what I prefer to view as nano-v of micro-5 of minute-i. Although I prefer to see a move to SPX2863 at a minium, what I like is not necessarily similar as to what th market does and will do 😉 Thus, assuming minute-i topped, see figure 1A, we should likely only see a retrace back SPX2835-2830.

Daily update 08.15.2018: The blue path I outlined in the weekend update continues/continued to track the market the best: see Figure 1A.. With a c=a relationship target at SPX2800 and a low today at SPX2805, we can assume the low for this move down is in. Question is now if all of minor-2 is in, or if it was only minute-a of minor-2, with minute-b underway to yet again the SPX2840-45 zone: see Figure 1B.

Daily update 08.14.2018: Since I have obligations all afternoon, today’s daily update is earlier and before close; hence things can change. But for now we can clearly see that the blue path I outlined in the weekend update is tracking the market the best: see Figure 1A. Lucky guess I guess 😉

Daily update 08.13.2018: As I said in the weekend update: short-term things are rather random and hard to predict. Today’s a great example: pop and drop followed by another (smaller) pop and drop. Now price topped today right inbetween the blue 4 and orange b I outlined in the weekend update; so it’s a bit uncertain which count it really is. But, the declines continue to look impulsive, while the bounces corrective (See insert)

Daily update 08.09.2018: Well, we’ve been watching paint dry for the last three days (the market is so far only higher due to Monday’s rally), but the close each day has been down not up. Today we were presented with an even larger pullback and the micro count suggests -for the SPX as the NAS/NDX made new highs- that wave (2/b) completed today and wave (3/c) is underway.

Daily update 08.08.2018: Today was an >7p pullback which could suggest the uptrend off the SPX2796 low has ended (see Figure 1). In addition, it appears there are five micro-waves down from yesterday’s high to today’s low followed by a corrective bounce. This suggests we should see lower prices tomorrow. If so, then we should see at least a retest of today’s low for a c=a or up to SPX2842 on a 2.00x Fib extension for a standard impulse down, which is at support (blue band). Other than that, not much to add.

Daily update 08.06.2018: In the weekend update I mentioned “This would mean the S&P could go all the way back to SPX2848 or even a bit higher as the micro-waves off the orange 4 low suggest price can reach as high as SPX2852 to complete wave-5 , but it’s not necessary as price reached the 5=1 relationship. This would then make for a flat to irregular flat and wave-c can then either reach to SPX2796 once again or possible as low as SPX2770 (assuming c=1.618x a; but it can even extend to c=2.618x a but we don’t know this yet).”

Daily update 08.02.2018: Corrections are always very hard to correctly forecast and foresee due to the many twists and turns a, b, and c waves can take (the are simple many different types of corrections while there’s only two types of impulse: diagonal and regular). Thus today’s lower open and rally (turn around) most likely presents us with the Elliot Wave counts shown in Fig 1A and B for the S&P and NAS.