August 2017

Daily update 08/31/2017: The market has rallied relentlessly into my preferred targetzone of SPX2465-2488 (Fig 1A); and topped at the 1.236x a extension: SPX2475. I didn’t show this Fib-extension yesterday because it is a somewhat uncommon for a c-wave. Nonetheless, it’s right at the prior two SPX2475 highs (minute-ii and minor-b) and inside the target zone.

Daily update 08/30/2017: Yesterday I favored the “subdividing intermediate-b” vs “intermediate-a still underway” count 70 vs 30; based on the weight of the evidence (longer rally then from prior low, daily chart, and that price bottomed right at the ideal target zone). With today’s clear brake above SPX2455 (previous rally highs) my preferred view got confirmed and we can now more firmly set price targets for this b-wave – see figure 1A- depending on wave-extensions.

Daily update 08/29/2017: Yesterday I showed the two most likely counts: “The 1st has minor-b still ongoing targeting around SPX2430 +/- 2p before minor-c takes hold. The 2nd has intermediate-a still underway with a subdividing minor-c: minute-a ended at SPX2417, minute-b ended at SPX2454 and minute-c is now underway with 3 possible ideal price targets: c=a at SPX2395, c=1.382x a at SPX2375 and c=1.618x a at SPX2363.”  Today the S&P500 bottomed exactly in the target zone of the first count (Fig. 1A) and started to rally.

Daily update 08/28/2017: As I was charting today’s price action in the cash markets, the futures (ES) market decided to shave off 18+ points in reaction to North Korea’s test missile launched over Japan. Although anything can happen between now and the open tomorrow, I do have to be cognizant of that fact and it leaves only two options; shown in Figure 1A and B.

Daily update 08/24/2017I hate to say “the market can go up or down”, cause we all know that, but currently that’s really all we can say about the current price action. Although yesterday’s forecast “A short term drop below SPX2441 … targets SPX2435ish…” was correct (today’s low was SPX2436),…

Daily update 08/23/2017Today we got the first >10p pullback which allows for some possibilities to open up. 1) minute-a or minor-a topped at SPX2455; and minor-b is now underway. 2) minor-b can have completed at SPX2441 or is subdividing and may target SPX2436 (the 50% retrace).

Daily update 08/22/2017: Yesterday the weight of the evidence was rather bullish with seven (!) indications that a low was struck; and I therefore preferred (60%) a rally to >SPX2440 without any >10p pullbacks. This is why the “weight of the evidence” approach is the best approach 😊 And a rally we got: 37p.

Daily update 08/22/2017: Yesterday the weight of the evidence was rather bullish with seven (!) indications that a low was struck; and I therefore preferred (60%) a rally to >SPX2440 without any >10p pullbacks. This is why the “weight of the evidence” approach is the best approach 😊

Daily update 08/21/2017: As expected the S&P500 dropped lower, but not as low as expected. Instead of SPX2405 it only reached the rather uncommon c=1.146x Fib-extension (SPX2415) at SPX2417, and started to rally. The 1minute chart shows the two possible counts, with the count in “…“ as the alternate (lower probability: 40%).

Daily update 08/17/2017: Today the market made my life much easier again as it confimed the minor-b top at SPX2475 in one single day. Today also confirmed why I -as discussed yesterday- don’t count, say, 5p moves. Because those who did would have counted the move from SPX2438 to 2475 as 5 waves up (Fig 1A: orange 1…,2,3,4,5).

Daily update 08/16/2017: Another flat day today; but we can add something more as we’ve had the first >10p move. I know the move on Friday from SPX2448 to 2438 is rounded 10p, but it was 9.7p… In Figure1A I show, using this rounded-up wave, the most likely and tentative (grey) minute-waves count.

Daily update 08/15/2017: Flat to down day today; thus very little to add to yesterday’s update as I am unable to count any waves up off the SPX2438 low (waves need to be >10p for me to be able to qualify). There’s negative divergence on the hourly RSI5 as price stayed flat.

Daily update 08/14/2017: It should have been no surprise to any of us that we got the bounce we expected today as the the weight of the evidence presented in the weekend update clearly and strongly favored a relief rally.

Daily update 08/10/2017: Yesterday I was looking for a bounce to SPX2476-2484, but clearly the market thought SPX2474 was enough. Still not a shabby prediction as it was off by only 2p for an ideal c=a relationship, which is the accuracy (+/-2p) I work with.

Daily update 08/09/2017: Yesterday I wrote: “To be technical safe and sound, price needs to drop below SPX2406 to confirm major-3, but now a drop below SPX2459 is a first serious warning followed by SPX2450 as at that stage the market is making lower lows and highs.” Although the S&P500 suffered the largest pullback since the SPX2405 low (29p vs 31p), 2459 has not been broken…

Daily update 08/08/2017: “To top or not to top?” that is the question. Yesterday’s ATCH forced me to switch to the bullish count as the most likely count (Remember it is all about probabilities of possibilities). The market didn’t disappoint and rallied to a new All-Time-High (ATH) today, but not a new ATCH. Another bearish intra-day reversal like July 27.

Daily update 08/07/2017: Today the S&P500 made a new All-Time-Closing High (ATCH) and this suggests the market wants to go higher and is most likely in micro-3 of minute-v of minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3. The one-minute plot below shows the most likely count.

Daily update 08/02/2017: The final scribbles are always the toughest to analyses and today I must present 3 counts: The first (Fig. 1A) has micro-c of minute-b of minor-a underway. It will seek a marginal higher high above today’s high and then price will turn south. A move below SPX2466 will confirm this count.

Daily update 08/01/2017: As promised last week; when it would be time I’d present my alternate count, which is shown In Figure 1B. Instead of major-3 top at SPX2484 it counts that high as minute-iii of minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3, and thus price is in that case in minute-iv, with ideally a b-wave underway, to be followed by 1 more c-wave down.