This page features Intelligent Investing’s daily updates of the US stock market, mostly focused on the S&P500, made public three to five days after being sent out to Premium Members. To become a Premium Member, please subscribe here. Subscription includes access to one of the best, detailed, up-to-date technical analyses of most US indices, commodities, and many individual stocks you’ll find.
Daily update 04.30.2018: Today the markets added a bit more upside, but it again failed at the SPX2683/2684 level and that’s why I said not to go long until a close above SPX2685 (unless you have a trading system that gives earlier and different buy/sell signals). Thus, no harm done 😊 and thus we’re still in the chop zone without too much additional knowledge of which of the three main EWT counts is ultimately operable:
Daily update 04.26.2018: Today went exactly as forecasted over the past two days: bounce to the SPX2655-2680 target. We got SPX2676. Not too shabby a forecast, as the forecast for a low in the SPX2635-2615 zone was also only off by 2p. 😊 Thank me later 😉 Thus, both EWT counts from the past two days remain on the table
Daily update 04.25.2018: Not too much to add to my current outlooks as the markets didn’t make much headway today, and only made a marginal lower low (SPX2613, which is very close to the projected SPX2615 lower end of the target zone). Thus, both of yesterday’s counts remain on the table.
Daily update 04.24.2018: The market didn’t mince any meat today, failed at SPX2684 (flat b-wave) and dropped right into yesterday’s outlined target zone for a possible b-wave low: Figure 1-a. Either this b-wave has ended and wave-c to SPX2740-2750 is underway for a larger major-4 d-wave (see Figure 2C)…
Daily update 04.23.2018: The market continues its rather unpredictable ways. I wish it was different, but I don’t make the market and this environment is as tuff as it gets. We did get a bounce due to the positive divergence on the hourly chart, but price stalled at SPX2683 and made a marginal lower, again setting up positive divergence on the hourly.
Daily update 04.17.2018: Today’s price action should have been music in everybody’s ears based on my buy recommendations from yesterday. With today’s price action the b-wave scenario is becoming once again even less likely as this “moving the goal posts even further north” stops working at some point….
Daily update 04.16.2018: Today the S&P managed to make another new high and close above the green SPX2620-2670 zone, which in the weekend update I’d increased to SPX2675. This is the first time since March 21, and thus a significant and a positive development. However, the short term price action (over the last 6 days) is all but clear…
Daily update 04.12.2018: Yep, still stuck in the green SPX2620-2670 zone, albeit the S&P made a higher high today, and it is also still within the orange warning zone (Fig 1A and 1B; respectively). Seems like some sort of diagonal could be forming off the SPX2586 low as well and the bearish b-wave top continues to be moved north, which is something I personally don’t like because it makes the bearish scenario less likely… .
Daily update 04.11.2018: Very little to add since the markets didn’t really go anywhere today. The S&P remains stuck in the green SPX2620-2670 zone. Only a breakout or breakdown will set the stage for the next larger direction. Both EWT counts thus remain on the table until one is proven and the other disproven
Daily update 04.10.2018: In the weekend update I concluded “If the analogy with the 2011-correction holds in term of price pattern than the market should bounce on Monday and bottom on Thursday, which is also a Fib-based turn date.” However, I anticipated “minute-b to SPX2625 +/- 5 is now underway before minute-c targets SPX2540-2450.” and clearly today’s bounce to SPX2654 was much higher, albeit yet again a false breakout which stalled in the green SPX2620-2670 zone.
Daily update 04.09.2018: In the weekend update I concluded “If the analogy with the 2011-correction holds in term of price pattern than the market should bounce on Monday and bottom on Thursday, which is also a Fib-based turn date.” However, I anticipated “minute-b to SPX2625 +/- 5 is now underway before minute-c targets SPX2540-2450.”
Daily update 04.04.2018: Yesterday, I expected the bounce “could possibly go a bit higher to SPX2634, but not necessarily.” Today the S&P traded as high as SPX2650, and although a c = 1.618X a extension is still possible targeting SPX2679 the current rally off the SPX2554 low is now the longest since the SPX2802 high (96p vs 90p), signaling a larger wave is underway.
Daily update 04.03.2018: Yesterday, “I expect[ed] a bounce to possible SPX2600 before the selling continuous.”. Today we got SPX2615 and it could possibly go a bit higher to SPX2634, but not necessarily. This would then IMHO mark micro-b of minute-c and a standard c=a relationship can then target SPX2515 to SPX2450 on a c=1.618x a relationship.
Daily update 04.02.2018: With the market not rallying any further than Thursday’s SPX2659 high, the preferred count is now that minute-c of minor-c of intermediate-c of major-4 is underway. Hence, this means the market is getting close to wrapping up the final wave down.