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Daily update 12/07/2017: Let’s start today with the most important aspect of the recent market action: “The stock market is showing some cracks, and the Trump Rally could be counted as complete. But, there’s been no confirmation of a change of trend yet.” Please keep this in mind. Yesterday’ odds favored for an up day today, which is exactly what we got.
Daily update 12/06/2017: Today was the 4th consecutive down day for the S&P; it’s first since March this year. Since the SPX1810 low made in February 2016, there were 5 consecutive down days in July and the start of the current “Trump rally” ended a 7 day loosing streak. Hence, odds favor for an up day tomorrow.
Daily update 12/05/2017: With the 3rd consecutive intra-day bearish reversal for the S&P things look, well, bearish. In fact, 3 days in a row of such reversals only increases the odds major-3 has topped at SPX2665. I place those now at 80%. However, several individual stocks may still do well and carve out their final advance.
Daily update 12/04/2017: Yesterday evening I sent out a special email, in which I warned that chasing the upside would not be a wise thing to do, and that having been stopped out and/or sold into last week’s strength wasn’t that bad. True to form the market gapped up higher, rallied to a new ATH (SPX2665) within minutes and then dropped 26p to close below Friday’s close.