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Daily update 08/17/2017: Today the market made my life much easier again as it confimed the minor-b top at SPX2475 in one single day. Today also confirmed why I -as discussed yesterday- don’t count, say, 5p moves. Because those who did would have counted the move from SPX2438 to 2475 as 5 waves up (Fig 1A: orange 1…,2,3,4,5).
Daily update 08/16/2017: Another flat day today; but we can add something more as we’ve had the first >10p move. I know the move on Friday from SPX2448 to 2438 is rounded 10p, but it was 9.7p… In Figure1A I show, using this rounded-up wave, the most likely and tentative (grey) minute-waves count.
Daily update 08/15/2017: Flat to down day today; thus very little to add to yesterday’s update as I am unable to count any waves up off the SPX2438 low (waves need to be >10p for me to be able to qualify). There’s negative divergence on the hourly RSI5 as price stayed flat.
Daily update 08/14/2017: It should have been no surprise to any of us that we got the bounce we expected today as the the weight of the evidence presented in the weekend update clearly and strongly favored a relief rally.
Daily update 08/10/2017: Yesterday I was looking for a bounce to SPX2476-2484, but clearly the market thought SPX2474 was enough. Still not a shabby prediction as it was off by only 2p for an ideal c=a relationship, which is the accuracy (+/-2p) I work with.
Daily update 08/09/2017: Yesterday I wrote: “To be technical safe and sound, price needs to drop below SPX2406 to confirm major-3, but now a drop below SPX2459 is a first serious warning followed by SPX2450 as at that stage the market is making lower lows and highs.” Although the S&P500 suffered the largest pullback since the SPX2405 low (29p vs 31p), 2459 has not been broken…
Daily update 08/08/2017: “To top or not to top?” that is the question. Yesterday’s ATCH forced me to switch to the bullish count as the most likely count (Remember it is all about probabilities of possibilities). The market didn’t disappoint and rallied to a new All-Time-High (ATH) today, but not a new ATCH. Another bearish intra-day reversal like July 27.
Daily update 08/07/2017: Today the S&P500 made a new All-Time-Closing High (ATCH) and this suggests the market wants to go higher and is most likely in micro-3 of minute-v of minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3. The one-minute plot below shows the most likely count.
Daily update 08/02/2017: The final scribbles are always the toughest to analyses and today I must present 3 counts: The first (Fig. 1A) has micro-c of minute-b of minor-a underway. It will seek a marginal higher high above today’s high and then price will turn south. A move below SPX2466 will confirm this count.
Daily update 08/01/2017: As promised last week; when it would be time I’d present my alternate count, which is shown In Figure 1B. Instead of major-3 top at SPX2484 it counts that high as minute-iii of minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3, and thus price is in that case in minute-iv, with ideally a b-wave underway, to be followed by 1 more c-wave down.