March 2019

Please click on the hyperlinked blue text to access the updates, which are in PDF format.

March 28, 2019: Are you as confused as everybody else about the price action in the S&P500? If so, then it always helps to look at what other indices do so we can at least be more certain about what we know vs what we don’t know as there’s a whole lot more than just the hybrid S&P500 one can trade and should focus on. In addition, I don’t have all the answers all the time either because as said yesterday my methods are not fool proof either. Nobody’s methods are for that matter.

March 27, 2019: Today’s slop hasn’t changed my market outlook as my call from Monday still holds: ”green Tuesday, red Wednesday, green Thursday”. So far 2 out of 3. All other parameter remains the same as found yesterday as well: Price can still move a little higher first to SPX2832, but not necessarily.

March 26, 2019: Yesterday I was looking for a bounce, and we got it. Now if my ideal scenario from yesterday continues to be correct than we should expect ”red Wednesday, green Thursday”. Price can still move a little higher first to SPX2832, but not necessarily. A rise towards SPX2850 will have me look for other things that could be transpiring.

March 25, 2019: Price was unable to close above SPX2800 and suggests we should see more downside -after a potential bounce- to target the ideal SPX2720-2680 target zone. There is positive divergence on the hourly RSI5, which should trigger the anticipated bounce. Other than that, not much to report, as the Bears’ thesis of “crash Monday” didn’t materialize.

March 22, 2019: Yesterday I wrote “Thus, we now need to see a move below SPX2812 to confirm the impulse Elliott wave count, while a move above SPX2844 will tell me I am wrong and we should target SPX2875+” and I concluded in my Bottom line “But, since wave-counts are always subjective, price will be the final arbiter and a break below SPX2803 is still needed to unlock SPX2750, while a break above SPX2853 can target SPX2873.”. Clearly that move below SPX2812 never happened as the Bulls stepped already back in at SPX2819.

March 21, 2019: Nothing new today as the bifurcated markets continued yet again: The DJIA, RUT ended lower; the NAS and NDX closed higher, while now also the (hybrid) SPX closed lower. This rally continues to be risk-off, not broad based, and -as said many times before- mainly large-tech-cap driven. Look at the FAANG today: all were up >2.0%. I honestly have not seen that before. And to be honest, it frightens me a bit as lob-sided, one-trick-pony rallies are vulnerable. But feelings aside, let’s look at the facts: The S&P500 did, what counts well as five waves down from the SPX2852 high into the SPX2812 low today.

March 19, 2019: The bifurcated markets continued today. The DJIA and RUT ended lower; the NAS and NDX closed higher, while the (hybrid) SPX was stuck in the middle and closed flat. This rally thus continues to not be risk-on nor broad based, but -as said before- mainly large-tech-cap driven. It therefore remains suspect until proven otherwise. Figure 1 below shows the equal weight XVG index.

March 18, 2019: Top hunting has been an exercise in futile especially over the last week as there was only been a 18p pullback. These shallow pullbacks (during the entire rally since the December low) do not provide me with any standard/normal Fib-extensions and retraces that I can anchor and reference my work on. As such the (detailed Elliott wave) forecasts become less certain. This is very frustrating both for you and me, but it simply is what it is, and we can’t do anything about it.

March 14, 2019: Yesterday I outlined ”BUT we will need to see a >15p move to be more certain [of a wave-b top] and ultimately a move below SPX2740 is still needed from current levels to tell us the recent rally has ended.”. Today the S&P500 dropped to SPX2803 and provided therewith a 18p drop. Thus, one step closer to confirming the preferred POV that a b-wave high was made yesterday.

March 13, 2019: Well the irregular wave-b has arrived without a shadow of a doubt. A 100p rally for the S&P500 in around three days with only a ~10p pullback yesterday. This makes wave counting of that rally nearly impossible. Thus all we can go buy is the negative divergence on the hourly RSI5 to tell us a top could be approaching/in. BUT we will need to see a >15p move to be more certain and ultimately a move below SPX2740 is still needed from current levels to tell us the recent rally has ended

March 12, 2019: Yesterday I showed the preferred path in Figure-1 for intermediate-b of major-2/b, but mentioned “for now there’s of course no knowing if this will actually materialize; it is simple based on the fact that b-waves always are three waves. So ideally a little higher to complete minor-a of -b, then a drop to around SPX2740-2760 for wave-b of -b and then a rally into EOW for wave-c of -b at around SPX2800-2810. Note that wave-b can easily become an irregular flat, i.e move over SPX2813.”

March 11, 2019: In the recent weekend update I found “it’s possible wave-a of -2/b has completed at Friday’s SPX2722 low and wave-b of 2/b is underway. It depends on how high the currently anticipated bounce will carry: above SPX2767 and wave-b is confirmed. If the bounce stall at ~SPX2750 and heads lower, wave-a will likely turn into five waves first before wave-b takes hold. But, market breadth is currently so extremely oversold and at extremes from which normally already a snap back rally would have occurred on Friday. Thus odds favor a green start to the week.”

March 7, 2019: Yesterday I found “… odds are now in favor of the major-2/b decline being underway (60%), which is shown in Figure 4 and 5.” Today these odds became 100%. At long last, my work has become a bit easier. Why did today confirm major-1/a? Because the current decline is now the deepest and longest (78p and four days) compared to the prior deepest and longest decline (77p and 3-4 days); and price overlapped with the wave-1 high (SPX2739) and thus wave-4 is not possible anymore as 1st and 4th waves don’t overlap in an impulse

March 6, 2019: Yesterday I found “… odds are now in favor of the major-2/b decline being underway (60%), which is shown in Figure 4 and 5.” Today these odds became 100%. At long last, my work has become a bit easier. Why did today confirm major-1/a? Because the current decline is now the deepest and longest (78p and four days) compared to the prior deepest and longest decline (77p and 3-4 days);

March 5, 2019: Another “Pop and drop today.” open at SPX2794, drop to SPX2783, rally to SPX2796, close 3p below yesterday’s close at SPX2790. A 16p day, closing lower. Not really Bullish; so has the major top been struck? I still can’t confirm it as last week’s parameters remain the same: “steps 2 and 3: a close below SPX2764 and below SPX2731; respectively.” to confirm the major top.

March 4, 2019: Pop and drop today. Has the major top been struck? I still can’t confirm it as last week’s parameters remain the same a “But we still can’t be sure until the Bears accomplish the aforementioned steps 2 and 3: a close below SPX2764 and below SPX2731; respectively.” Now we can up the lower level to SPX2741 since the largest decline since the December low was 76p (2817-76p).