March 2019



These updates are made public by being posted one week after being sent out to Premium Members. To become a Premium Member, please subscribe here. Subscriptions include access to one of the best, detailed, up-to-date technical analyses of most US indices, commodities, and many individual stocks you’ll find.

Please click on the hyperlinked blue text to access the updates, which are in PDF format.

March 28, 2019: So after a top within hours of the lunar cycle/eclipse, Palladium has “crashed” 18% in a week and now sports an outside bar on the Monthly chart already, after the overthrow of channels and overhead boundaries at multiple degrees. Even the Quarterly chart, after a high with just 10 days left in the quarter, looks very suspect already, and very similar to other important Quarterly-chart turns over the past few decades.

March 27, 2019:Silver is clearly corrective from 2011 into the November 2018 low and five up from there has cleared all of the potentially-operative channels in this decline. Huge long-term support resides in the 13-14 range so it’s not surprising that the 2018 low was a truncation of 0.25 vs. the low in December 2015. Even if the 2018 low is a (B) or (X) wave, after (A) up, or (A)(B)(C) up from 2015, Silver should still progress higher toward 22 anyways so it’s bullish either way.

March 25, 2019: On the Daily chart, action continues to be ideal as wave a up tested the lower end of resistance targets on Thursday (96.57-.82), while wave c tested the upper end of the same on Friday, so minimum requirements are in place for the completion of wave (ii) up. However, the subsequent dip is corrective so far and time considerations allow for further chop higher in here, so wave (ii) is probably turning more complex before this rebound is complete, with another abc toward 96.95-97.10. 97.25-.29 is next resistance, if needed.

March 21, 2019: MACD has now turned down on the Daily after multiple divergences as shown, and action off the 3/7 high is impulsive enough and has cracked enough support to suggest resumption lower is getting underway. Last night I pointed this out, but with the timing cluster coming in, the ideal scenario was for a small, second-wave rebound to get underway toward 96.57-.82 and a small impulse north in a up has already tested this zone.

March 19, 2019: There are some neat aspects to Canadian Dollar action going back several decades and I will defer to the Overview for the full discussion thereof, but basically, three down tagged an ideal equality measure, among other support at the January 2002 low. Momentum diverged and five waves up ensued to November 2007, taking out the operative channel in wave 3 of (3). A three-wave decline has ensued to .786 support, as well as the operative channel in three down. Subsequently, waves (A) and (C) fully tested the formerly-operative channel going back to the late 1970’s.

March 18, 2019: The Daily chart shows momentum divergences at the high as wave 1 up ended, right into the well-defined channel and with 8 months in wave 1 up, wave 2 down should take a few months anyways. Wave a (circled) was clearly impulsive and wave b (circled) tagged an ideal area in a clear, three waves up, which included equality in this rise. While wave b (circled) could be turning more complex at this point, little upside is expected beyond that initial high.

March 14, 2019: Gold tagged the ideal resistance area at 1310-14 yesterday for wave b (circled) and turned solidly lower today. The real, fine-tuned target area was more like 1311 and 123.74-.78 in GLD, as noted, which included equality in the (a) and (c) legs up, within wave b (circled), and that was a pretty precise hit by the market (yesterday’s high in Gold was 1311.59 while GLD’s high was 123.88).

March 13, 2019: The Dollar is progressing well, along the lines of this ending diagonal c (circled) wave to finish wave 2; however, it is getting dicey, in terms of the wedge possibly being done now, so late-week action should tip-the-scales on near-term direction. Momentum is diverging all the way back to the left shoulder, in the ongoing head-and-shoulder top, and this looks much like the inverse of the momentum set-up at the 2008-11 low.

March 12, 2019: There are some interesting developments in Silver and Silver relative to Gold right now, where near-term trends are looking very interesting, given the bullish intermediate- and long-term outlooks. On the Monthly chart, the best count remains the triple-three correction, as shown, from 2011, with the latter three testing the December 2015 low but not taking it out. Recall from the Overview that the 13-14 area is a huge cluster of support so not taking out that low by 0.25 is not a big deal.

March 11, 2019: On the Monthly chart, five up in wave 1 up from August took shape into February and momentum, post divergences, has turned up nicely in terms of Stochastics and MACD, while RSI is into “resistance,” and into one of its highest levels in almost 7 years. On the Weekly chart, wave 1 approached chart resistance going back several years with momentum overbought. A small impulse lower is the beginning of wave 2 down, with momentum turning on down for now.

March 7, 2019: This wedge is coming along nicely in the Dollar right now, but five up in a up looks very ripe for completion as it gets into stiff overhead resistance and approaches the channel within this move, as well as some internal relationships therein. As far as the wedge goes, the Euro and Swiss (Futures), as noted, seemed to also need similar downside patterns all along to really set their lows up with the rest of the currencies.

March 5, 2019: As discussed in the overview on Platinum, five up into March 2008 has been followed by three down and this decline is not yet complete, as it should trace out five waves down for wave C (circled) and wave (5) down still has several subdivisions left to the downside. With Gold and Silver well into initial impulsive declines in wave a (circled) within wave-2 corrections,

March 4, 2019: Similar to Gold, an initial five-wave rise for wave 1 from the November low has yielded to wave 2 down. This initial push higher clearly penetrated all of the operative channels in the decline from 2011. Post divergences, momentum has turned up nicely on the Monthly chart