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October 7. So, while SPX2960 was reached today, BINGO!, it did so on negative divergence on the hourly RSI5 and what counts best on the 1-min chart (using about the same depth of each retrace) as 13 waves up: an impulse. Thus, I now expect SPX2920-2880 to be reached with an ideal target of SPX2900+/-10p. A move below SPX2880 will put the Bulls more immediately under serious pressure and then targets ideally SPX2800+/-10p
October 3: With today’s move below SPX2875 the S&P500 bottomed at SPX2855 right in the SPX2870-2850 target zone and staged its best rally since the decline off the SPX2992 high started. Thus wave-iii/c is complete and now ideally wave-iv is underway to around SPX2922-2939. .
October 2: And we finally have our answer! Although the odds were already favoring lower and not higher prices, today took any doubt about a possible 5th wave higher off the table as price dropped well below the SPX2925 +/- 10p final line-in-the-sand cut off range and ran straight towards the lower end of the ideal target zone of SPX2920-2880. BINGO! This allows me to clean up the hourly chart and focus on the formation of a possible impulse wave down (grey i, ii, iii, iv, v).
October 1: Well, we didn’t get that pullback to ~SPX2960 and instead a rally to over SPX2990, which held for 15 minutes and then a very strong reversal. This pop and drop complicated the Elliott wave count but counts best as an irregular flat b/ii wave (see Figure 1). The drop below SPX2940 and the overlap with the August 22 SPX2939.08 high today means -most likely and preferably!- price is now targeting the lower ideal target zone of SPX2923-2880.