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August 15: Yesterday I was looking for “A small micro 5th wave lower to SPX2810+/-10p, followed by another whipsaw rally to around SPX2870+/-10p should then set us up for the final decline.” So far we got SPX2826 (off by 6p… pardon my inaccuracy) and positive divergence on the hourly RSI5 started to kick in. The preferred count is that all of a/i of c has completed. A bounce to SPX2880-2900 with an ideal target zone of SPX2883-2898 should now most likely be underway.
August 14: So, where does this massive whipsaw leave us? Well, clearly the c-wave fell short and unfortunately what I wrote yesterday came true “as long as SPX2900 holds, with a first warning at SPX2910, I continue to look higher for this wave-c of b/2 to ideally SPX2985+/-5p (assuming c=a). I am unable to foresee extended and/or truncated c-waves.” With the open at SPX2895 none of those two stop levels mattered anymore…
August 13: Well, since the markets are probabilistic in nature and not filled with certainty, it decided to follow my path laid out in the weekend update “My preferred view is that wave-a of b/2 has completed and wave-b is now underway to ideally SPX2860 before wave-c of b/2 can target as high as SPX2980.”
August 12: With today’s price action I can keep today’s daily update short and sweet as the favored more downside already set in today as the S&P500 opened below SPX2900: first warning (!) and then moved inside the ideal target zone of SPX2880-2850 which I am now narrowing down to SPX2890-2870 (c=a to c=1.681x a, see Figure 1) and so far a SPX2873 low was hit.