January 2019

Daily major markets update 01.31.2019: Because of the many smaller waves, there’s many ways I can Elliott Wave count the advance off the December lows, and below are the two main options shown for the S&P500, which we’ll then review using the NASDAQ and Dow Jones.

Daily major markets update 01.30.2019: With the break over SPX2675 we can drop the leading diagonal wave-a count and focus on the impulse count: proir option B. The possible triangle 4th wave was invalidated today as well as it would have required another wave-d up and wave-e down before the next leg up (wave-v). But, we never got the wave-e down

Daily major markets update 01.29.2019: With less than a 20p range in the S&P500 there’s very little I can add to yesterday’s update. Option A and B remain in play, with option B possible morphing into a triangle instead of a flat.

  1. A leading diagonal pattern wave-a, with a flat correction wave-b to ideally SPX2500 +/- 20p (50% odds).
  2. Wave-iii of wave-1 completed at SPX2675 and wave-iv of wave-1 is forming a flat correction targeting SPX2610-2575 before wave-v targets ideally PX2750-2790. A triangle correction is also very possible. Once wave-1completes, wave-2 should retrace price back to SPX2550 +/- 20p (50% odds);

Daily major markets update 01.28.2019: In the weekend update I presented three options:

This means the following three counts are possible, presented in order from least to most Bullish:

  1. A leading diagonal pattern wave-a, with a flat correction wave-b to ideally SPX2500+/-20 (33% odds).
  2. Wave-iii and –iv of –1 are complete and wave-v is to target SPX2700-2725 before wave-2 retraces price back to SPX2500+/-20p (33% odds);
  3. Only wave-3 and –4 of –iii of 1 are complete and wave-5 is underway to ideally SPX2685-2725 before wave-ivtakes hold and retraces ~100p. From there (SPX2620-2575) wave-v should bring price back up to SPX2750-2790 to complete wave-1 (33% odds);

Daily update 01.24.2019: Today’s 20p range on the S&P500 did nothing to change my two perspectives as shown over the last few days:

  • Either wave-a topped at SPX2675 and wave-b to ~SPX2500 +/- 20p is underway in choppy (a, b, c) fashion
  • Or a new impulse higher is developing with wave-4 underway, and wave-5 to >SPX2675 will start soon.

Daily update 01.23.2019: Yesterday I outlined the possible path forward for the preferred wave-b of major-b correction. With today’s pop and drop (to a marginal lower low @ SPX2613), resulting in positive divergence on the hourly RSI5, it suggests wave-a didn’t finish yesterday, but today. This is shown in the chart below.

Daily update 01.22.2019: In the weekend update I went over two main options: either a new Bull had started, or wave-IVwas still underway, but (the first a-wave of the larger bounce (a,b,c) extending further than originally anticipated. I gave each 50/50 odds because there was too little price data available yet to confirm either.

Daily update 01.17.2019: Up to about 2:30pm ET things were moving along pretty much as expected, with price following picture-perfect Fib-extensions and retraces for the smaller waves, but then news about China-Tariffs was released, which was then also quickly retracted. This led to a big spike (to SPX2645.06) exceeding my ideal SPX2625 target, and the possible next upside target (based on a 200% Fib-extension for a possible micro-5 wave) at ~SPX2630 as well, but price stalled right at the 50% retrace of the prior entire decline: SPX2643.75 (50% of 2940.91->2346.58).

Daily update 01.16.2019: BINGO!? Today we reached the ideal SPX2625 target to the T (SPX2625.76) for wave-a. There’s now negative divergence again on the hourly RSI5 and the hourly MACD (see Fig 1), while the daily indicators (on all indices) are overbought and in some cases showing possible negative divergences (see Fig 2, 3).

Daily update 01.15.2019: My forecast continues to track the markets well, and I see for now no reason to change my POV in that SPX2625 remains the ideal target for intermediate-a in the S&P500. One can, IMHO, either count the advance off the SPX2344 low as a leading diagonal, blue lines, or as a set of a, b, c waves, with wave-c of -c now underway and subdividing nicely along a perfect Fib-based impulse:

Daily update 01.14.2019: Today’s the market opened lower, recovered again and enough to close the opening gap, but remained then in a tight 20p range (SPX2570-2589)… zzzzzzzz…. The proposed leading diagonal for wave-a is still possible but has its cutoff now at SPX2570 as the lower blue line keeps rising (See Figure 1A). The impulse setup to SPX2625-2640 is also still possible but will be invalidated below SPX2560

Daily update 01.10.2019: Today’s drop came as expected and the S&P moved as low as SPX2562, but as said yesterday “A move below today’s low SPX2569 will be a first sign intermediate-b is underway, with confirmation below SPX2545.” Thus, we got a warning but no confirmation… The drop and pop today have made the exact wave count off the minor-b SPX2644 low a bit unclear, but if we can get a move over SPX2600 we should see SPX2625

Daily update 01.09.2019: Today’s update will be brief as price on most indices has now reached their upside targets for the anticipated intermediate wave-a. The NASDAQ has reached the upper end of its first resistance zone. If it can move above it, then NAS7150 could be next (50% retrace of prior decline), but with the 50d SMA at $7013 and the index getting overbought, not shown, it may not get there.

Daily update 01.08.2019: Today the S&P500 came within 3p of the ideal SPX2582 target zone, assuming the “5-waves up sequence (i, ii, iii, iv, v)” count is operable. Although that could have been it for intermediate-a, it remains a bit unclear if today’s low was actually wave-iv; labelled “alt-iv” in Figure 1A. Thus, price can still extend in wave-v to SPX2625 for a nice c=a relationship and I therefore continue to keep my c-wave target box at SPX2582-2625.

Daily update 01.07.2019: The markets keep moving along as forecasted and are inching closer to the ideal intermediate-a target zones for all indices as outlined in the weekly digest. Now question is where exactly we can expect minor-c of intermediate-a to top. With today’s price action it looks like minor-c will be a 5-waves up sequence (i, ii, iii, iv, v), but then price can’t exceed NAS6947 and SPX2582 as the 3rd wave can’t be the smallest wave