February 2019



Daily Update 02/28/’19: Today the S&P500 was stuck in a less than 6p range. So there’s really not much we can learn. All parameters remain the same a “step 2: A move below SPX2764.55 (last Thursday’s low) will be the 2nd clue that a top has been struck” is still needed to further suggest SPX2814 was major-1/a. For now, short term it appears a triangel is forming (dotted purple lines). This is typical for a 4th wave and should resolve it self with a move higher: wave-5.

Daily Update 02/27/’19: Today the S&P500 dropped to as low as SPX2774.82, which is still 10p shy of my “step 2: A move below SPX2764.55 (last Thursday’s low) will be the 2nd clue that a top has been struck”. So, while step 1 has been accomplished, the Bears still need step 2 albeit this is now and sofar the largets pullback since the SPX2682 low: 39p. As such I revisited my Elliott wave count for the S&P500 and aligned it with the ES_F (Futures) and DJIA in that the S&P500 could be completing minor-4 of intermediate-v (See Figure 1).

Daily Update 02/26/’19: Yesterday I found “…a move below last Friday’s high (SPX2794.20) will be a first sign of lower prices as then the decline can’t be a 4th wave because 4th and 1st waves can’t overlap in a standard impulse (unless we’re dealing with an ending diagonal [ED]). A move below SPX2764.55 (last Thursday’s low) will be the 2nd clue that a top has been struck as even in an ED wave-4 doesn’t move below the start of wave-1.”

Daily Update 02/25/’19: The markets opened as expected based on the preferred counts shown in the weekly digest. But, the markets didn’t close all that great, albeit nothing has been invalidated yet. In Figure 1 I’ve shown a slight variation of the preferred count shown in Figure 1 of the weekly digest. Now a move below last Friday’s high (SPX2794.20) will be a first sign of lower prices as then the decline can’t be a 4th wave because 4th and 1st waves can’t overlap in a standard impulse (unless we’re dealing with an ending diagonal [ED])

Weekly Update 02/23/’19: Over the past several weeks we could eliminate Elliott wave option after option and focus on the “Wave-5 of wave-v of –1 is underway to ideally SPX2750-2791” option. This week the S&P500 reached SPX2790 on Wednesday, dropped 25p on Thursday and rallied to SPX2794 on Friday. Mission accomplished? For now, yes, but there are always other options available; especially since the market continues to make higher lows; i.e. unable to break below support zones needed to suggest a larger top has been struck.

Daily Update 02/21/’19: After the SPX2790 high was struck yesterday, the S&P500 has retreated now 26p, clearly showing the importantce of the SPX2791 (2.00x extension of wave-i, measured from ii, see Figure 1 below). In addition, price has now moved outside the lower green uptrend line that has held all downside in check since that wave-ii low at SPX2444. Another feather in the Bears’ hat.

Daily Update 02/20/’19: Today the S&P500 came within 1p of the longstanding upper-end of the ideal target zone I’ve had for the past several weeks: SPX2750-2791 and reversed a whopping 16p 😉. Was that it? Who knows, as the the same parameters as yesterday remain in effect: “A break below SPX2760 will be a first sign of a top, a break below SPX2731 the 2nd step and a break below SPX2682 will confirm major-1/a.”

Daily Update 02/19/’19: In the weekend update I presented the preferred view and an alternate (more Bullish view). Today the market rallied to a new uptrend high and came within 3p of the ideal SPX2791 (v=2.00x i) extension. The current advance has lots of starts and stops as evidenced on the hourly candles, which IMHO is more indicative of sets of 4th and 5th waves instead of a 3rd wave

Weekly Update 02/16/’19: This past week we could eliminate the last option I had remaining and focus on the “Wave-5 of wave-v of –1 is underway to ideally SPX2750-2790 (50% odds)” option. Now that price has moved into this ideal target zone, which I’ve had for weeks, it is now also time to see if there are other (more Bullish) options possible.

Daily Update 02/14/’19: Yesterday I wrote “a move below SPX2740 from current levels is a first warning wave-1/a has topped. A move below SPX2718 will be a serious second warning with confirmation below SPX2682 as than a possible subdividing minor-5 wave is also off the table.

Daily Update 02/13/’19: Today minute-iii hit the 1.618x Fib-extension to the T (see Table-1) and now ideally minute-iv is underway to SPX2640 from which one last wave to ideally SPX2768-2776 should materialize. But betting on a final 5th of a 5th wave is always tricky and not very lucrative.

Daily Update 02/12/’19: Today the markets made my life easy as we can now focus on one count. I have for the moment no alternatives; neither Bullish nor Bearish. As the price action progressed I’ve been able to eliminate option after option and am now left with “minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-1/a underway” with minute-i, ii complete at SPX2718 and SPX2704 respectively.

Daily Update 02/11/’19: Today’s 8p range for the S&P500 is of course too small to allow for any major conclusions. Thus the two main counts as shown in the weekly digets remain in effect until one is disproven. Either major-1/a topped or it would want one more rally to SXP2750-2790.

Daily Update 02/07/’19: Yesterday I stated for the NAS/NDX “…the NAS made a marginal higher high today (2p), and then did drop below yesterday’s low; which could be a first tiniest sign of a larger reversal to come.” That indeed was correct, and price moved below SPX2710, then SPX2695 to bottom at SPX2687, which gave us the first warning of possible lower prices to come.

Daily Update 02/06/’19: The S&P500 opened at SPX2735, rallied to SPX2738, dropped to SPX2724 and closed at SPX2731. A total of 11p covered. That pretty much sums up this daily report because there’s nothing we can learn from the price action. As said yesterday we need to see below SPX2672 to tell top is in, with a first warning below SPX2695.

Daily Update 02/05/’19: The S&P500 gapped up above its 1.618x Fib-extension this morning as if it didn’t existed and traveled 2p above the SPX2737 cut-off I had for a possible wave-iii. Hence the preferred count is now that wave-v of 1 is underway to ideally SPX2750-2791.

Daily Update 02/04/’19: Because of the many small waves off the SPX2624 low there’s many ways I can Elliott Wave count the advance, and below are the two main options shown for the S&P500 as shown in the weekend update as well. Although I preferred a drop to SPX2685ish first, we only got SPX2699 today and thus the current wave continues to extend.