December 2018

This page features Intelligent Investing’s daily updates of the US stock market, mostly focused on the S&P500, made public by being posted here three to five days AFTER being sent out to Premium Members. To become a Premium Member, please subscribe here. Subscription includes access to one of the best, detailed, up-to-date technical analyses of most US indices, commodities, and many individual stocks you’ll find.

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Daily update 12.19.2018: Over the last two days I was looking for “a larger bounce (micro-b) to reach broken support of SPX2600-2620 before the last and final leg (micro-c of minute-c) completes to SPX2500-2475.” All we got was a move up to the 38.2% retrace at SPX2585 before the FED spoiled the party and price moved down to SPX2490.

Daily update 12.18.2018: Today the S&P500 (not the DJIA, NAS and NDX) made a marginally lower low below yesterday’s low (SPX2527 vs SPX2529), which forced me to re-assess the short-term Elliott-wave count I have for this move down from the SPX2685 high. I find that wave-3 of micro-a of minute-c, subdivided further. See Fig. 1.

Daily update 12.17.2018: Expected, the markets raced towards their ideal target zones today, as outlined in the weekend update and many updates before that: SPX2500-2475, NAS6395-6295 and NDX6080 +/- 10, DJIA23,200 +/-100, and RUT1355-1310; respectively. Short-term it looks like another five waves down completed, which I Elliott-wave count as micro-a of minute-c, see Fig. 1A.

Daily update 12.13.2018Today’s update can be short and sweet as not much happened today other than that the expected decline to (at least) SPX2635-2625 got underway as outlined in yesterday’s update “The other option simple remains that major-a bottomed and major-b is getting off to a bad start in a three-wave minor-a, which should be about complete. Minor-b should now ideally target SPX2635-2625 before minor-c targets SPX2735-2725.

Daily update 12.12.2018: Yesterday I could eliminate the possible ending diagonal and set of nested 1, 2 waves. Today’s price action confirmed that was the correct assessment. In addition, I found that minute-c could be subdividing and that we could see another rally to SPX2715 +/-5p. Well we did get this rally thanks to yet another 22p gap up open, which only ended in a 14p higher close: sell on strength (SOS) remains in full effect.

Daily update 12.11.2018Yesterday I could eliminate the possible ending diagonal and set of nested 1, 2 waves. Today’s price action confirmed that was the correct assessment. In addition, I found that minute-c could be subdividing and that we could see another rally to SPX2715 +/-5p. Well we did get this rally thanks to yet another 22p gap up open, which only ended in a 14p higher close: sell on strength (SOS) remains in full effect.

Daily update 12.10.2018In the weekend update I was looking for lower prices, and lower we got, but price did also close higher, i.e. above Fridays’ close. Another Bullish reversal candle? We’ve seen plenty of these “one-hit-wonders” recently (last Thursday being the prior) and so we really need to see follow through the next day. Or otherwise, as the saying goes “one swallow [a migratory bird] doesn’t make a summer”.

Daily update 12.06.2018: Let’s start with what we know: Last night I send out the ES_F futures chart (Fig 1A) showing a subdividing impulse wave down, and place two dotted orange arrows on the chart to project micro-4 and 5. As you can see, price moved along as projected (blue arrows) 😊. This means for the SPX (cash market) a sub-wave was missing, and we thus have a extended 5th wave on the books (Fig 1B); or as I wrote in Tuesday’s update “Fig 1B: The final 5th wave can still extend lower, but it is not necessary.”

Daily update 12.04.2018: WOW, who would have known?! Price went from my upper target zone to my lower (see page 2) in just 11 trading hours: The S&P500 lost ~10p/hour… Crazy. Big gap ups one day, followed by a 100p drop the next are the hallmarks of a Bear Market, not a Bull. If you therefore struggle in your trading, please contact me ASAP. In addition, a word of advice: when in a Bear market and my Elliot Wave Count suggests either “down” or “a few more subdivisions marginally higher” -as outlined yesterday (!); it is best to get out of the markets when long because Bear Markets prefer down, not up. Don’t try to milk those possible last few points. Not worth it

Daily update 12.03.2018: In the weekend update I summarized my findings as “Short-term the market should be close to completing intermediate-a, though based on a simple Bollinger Band Study, SPX2820 may well be reached first, which would allow for a further subdividing wave higher. … Hence, as all pullbacks have been around 20p on the S&P500 since the SPX2630 low, any larger pullback going forward [>25p] strongly suggests intermediate-a has completed. I then expect intermediate-b to retrace back to the breakout level of around SPX2700, before intermediate-c takes hold and takes price to new uptrend highs for all of major-b at preferably SPX2830-2930, with a sweet spot of SPX2830-2860.” Today the markets gapped up 40p higher, but none held their opening gains which is not all that Bullish.