For those who may not recall, but in late May I questioned some experts’ Bullish and Bearish calls and gave a objective, comprehensive, fact-based review of the Bitcoin charts (see here), concluding : “These Bearish developments for now add weight to the evidence that BTC is moving down and not up. Only if price can move back above that green long term uptrend line -which also equates to $10,000- can we start to entertain the Bullish options as outlined above more seriously. Until then, the weight of the evidence tells us its still down-hill from here for Bitcoin.”
For now that has been the right call as BTC was back then trading at $7500 and is now at $6500. Albeit the quick run to $8500 late last month, which once again brought out many Bulls (just Google it!), that’s already a 13% draw down for you if you’re still holding any Bitcoins since… So what’s next?
I still view Bitcoin as being in a bear market: for one it experienced a fake breakout and relapse below the down trend line (see chart below). In addition, BTC and it’s associated funds and indices (GBTC and NYXBT) are all in bear market mode with price below the 20d, 50d, and 200d simple moving averages. Moreover, bounces are getting smaller and smaller (buying is drying up) and lastly, I have forecasted this crypto currencies with high accuracy for my premium members by wearing bear-colored glasses so to say. So? Well, when forecasts work using a “bear-mode” approach it simple means the market is indeed in “bear-mode.” Vice versa for Bull markets.
Premium members receive a weekly update on BTC, GBTC and the NYXBT and the link below is a slide deck with a copy of one of these weekly updates on GBTC for each month since March this year. You will see my forecasts were correct each month. It also shows the supposedly “fast world of crypto-currencies” doesn’t need micro-analyses and continues updates. Indeed, it’s not fast at all and with one insight per week we’ve been able to nail this beast pretty darn good and better than most others if I may say so my self. Indeed, “the proof is in the pudding” as they say 🙂
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Founder and President Intelligent Investing, LLC
Vice President NorthPost Partners, LP