It is starting to look more and more like its completing five waves up off its early-April lows. Note the negative technical (RSI5 and MACD) and money flow (OBV) divergences on the weekly chart. Black wave-4 was a classic running flat btw (b>a, c ends above a: see also daily NDX chart below).
(FYI: Red wave-i label is missing, but it’s a leading diagonal)
The wave count shown on the charts is one of several possible, (I am traveling in Europe/Russia and unable to edit much) but the bottom line is: “although marginal higher highs are possible (NDX7499 would be ideal as to complete an ideal Fib-based impulse with wave-iii at 1.618x i and wave-iv at 1.000x i) it’s not necessary and I am expecting a larger decline first before any significant more upside is possible.
(FYI: green wave-3 label is missing but is last Monday’s high)
Of note, and using the wave labeling shown here, which can be one degree lower (and can be different on the SPX): major-1 -starting at the February 2016 low- on the NDX took 2 months, major-2 took 2 1/2 months, major-3 took 19 months, major-4 took 2 months, and under the count shown here major-5 has now been underway for almost 4 months. It thus appears from a timing perspective major-5 fits well with the other major-waves; especially since major-3 was already extended in time and price, and then the subsequent 5th wave will be “normal”; i.e. it doesn’t need to extend in time and price and thus is close to completing.
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