NASDAQ Update IV: And We Have Lift-off!

Over the past weeks I’ve kept you successfully and timely updated on the NASDAQ-100 (NDX) and RUSELL2000 (RUT) Elliot Wave Counts, as these indices have been hitting the forecasted price targets to the T. Let’s review what I forecasted and what transpired:

  • June 3: I forecasted the NDX to reach $7165-7290 (see here).
  • June 15: the NDX reached $7291 (Target reached!)
  • June 16: I post that the upside target was reached and forecasted the NDX to “decline back to the 100% Fib-extension at around $6950 before the next and final leg up” (see here)
  • June 28: the NDX reached $6950.23 (Target reached!)
  • June 29: I post that the downside target was reached and forecasted for the NDX “a move to the 200% extension [$7499] to complete an impulse up.” (see here)
  • July 6: One week later and the NDX is already half way to the ideal price target of $7499 as it closed at $7207 on Friday and up 257p from it’s $6950 low.

Hence, here we are one month later, and each high and low was forecasted to the T and updated on the very next day. That’s accurate and expert stock forecasting right there for you*

And there’s currently no indication the NDX (and RUT, see at the end) are not completing wave-v of their impulse up off their early-April lows. Now questions remains if these five waves up are only part of wave-i of an even larger 5-wave pattern; or all of wave-5 to complete a much larger top. Time will tell,  but that doesn’t mean that one shouldn’t take profits (QQQ, TQQQ, TAN, IWM) when these price targets have been reached. Rather safe than sorry. And of it is the former, than simple load up the boat on the next leg up. No harm done!

NDX daily TI

Similarly for the RUT, it should now be on its way to the ideal target of $1745. Also here price has followed a picture perfect Fib-extension impulse pattern. No denying; and oh so beautiful.

rut daily

The alternative for these two indices -which is quite Bullish- is major-4 bottomed not early-April, but late-May and the recent high and low were intermediate-i and –ii and –iii is now underway. But, the RUT will have to break above 1760, and the NDX above 7525 before I will adopt this POV.

From a timing perspective: major-1 on the NDX took two months, major-2 took 2½ months, major-3 took 19 months, major-4 took two months, and under the current EWT-count major-5 has now been underway for 3 months. Assuming a few more weeks to reach the upside targets, it appears timing wise major-5 fits well with the other major-waves; especially since major-3 was already extended in time and price, and then the subsequent 5th wave will often be “normal”. Please keep this in mind going forward.

Arnout, Ph.D.

2014-06-10 17.07.27-small

Founder and President Intelligent Investing, LLC

Vice President NorthPost Partners, LP

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