The S&P500 reached almost 2600. Was that it, or can it reach 2700?

On October 1st when the S&P500 was trading in the low 2500s I already was looking for the S&P to reach SPX2595 (see here) ps: we got SPX2597 on Tuesday 😉 Not shabby huh!? Although I was then expecting that to be a larger wave-degree top, I always remain flexible and open-minded within the market’s non-linear environments, especially since the market will always provide further clues as the waves continue to unfold, and we could actually move to SPX2700… More about that in a minute.

Hence, a week later I provided a road map to you, with an adjusted wave-degree (see here), while still maintaining the same target of SPX2600 +/- 10.  Two weeks later I was looking for micro-3 to reach SPX2583-2603 and micro-4 to stay above SPX2540; we got SPX2578 and SPX2544 (see here). Once SPX2544 was reached on October 25th, that same day I showed my premium members in my regular daily update I was looking for SPX2596 (see here) as that is where (orange) micro-5 would equal micro-1, after a standard micro-4 = micro-2 (34p vs 33p) setup. See hourly S&P chart below for details. 

SPX hourly 1

Last Tuesday the S&P topped at SPX2597, only 1p above my projection 🙂 , after having formed an Ending Diagonal Triangle, and has since declined in the typical fashion: a fast drop lower. This strongly suggests minute-iii has topped (see road map below). road map

Bottom line, all my projections and forecasts were excellent calls, sometimes within $1 accuracy, if I may say so myself, and they have of course kept many of my premium members on the right side of the trade for the entire time. That said, and staying within the flexible, open, mind-set, it is in fact possible for the S&P to have topped in minor-3 instead of minute-iii. See daily chart below. This would align better with the NAS (see my forecast and projections here, and/or check the daily updates archive here).

SPX daily

Regardless, I still expect the S&P to revisit the SPX2540s region before embarking on a final rally. If the alternate count shown is operative than a standard 5=1 relationship off the 76.4% retrace (typical for a 4th wave) then targets the 176.4% extension (typical for a 5th wave) at around SPX2705… However, this doesn’t mean we should turn a blind eye to the preferred count, which has tracked so well for many months showing SPX2610+/-10 could become a larger top from which we can expect a ~200p decline in the S&P. But, in that case we do need to see price drop below SP2540 first to be certain. Until then, it’s a Bull market where surprises are to the upside and the market should be treated as such until it (and not the media!) tells differently.

 

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