S&P 500 update: is the market still on track for 2600?

Last week I switched my view of the market entirely to the Bullish count after the probability of the bears possibility (a b-wave rally) was reduced to 0 because price broke above the last possible price-high such a b-wave could make (SPX2519). Since, the market tagged on another 35p and many premium members continued to bank on the melt up and my forecasts.

There’s therefore not much to add to last weeks’ update, other than that the current wave up has been extending much more than one can anticipate beforehand; as those forecasts can only be based on standard Fib-extensions. My current count can be found on my daily updates archive. See here.

As long as price remains above SPX2509 the trend is up. For now, the easy move has been made, as the market is starting to wrap up its final set of 4th and 5th waves. Nonetheless, each of these smaller corrections can still be viewed as buying opportunities for short-term traders. Please see the wave plot below on where we most likely are.

Picture1

In detail: due to these wave-extensions, price reached the 2nd price target zone for a possible micro-3 top, but Friday gave only a 9p drop. That is too little to be certain micro-3 is in or not. In addition, the micro-waves suggest that at least one more wave up would be ideal to complete micro-3 to the 3rd target zone of SPX2464-2471.

A break below Friday’s low (SPX2543), but not exceeding SPX2540 can still be part of micro-3 to be followed by one more wave up to complete it.

If price drops any lower we can safely say micro-3 topped at SPX2553 and micro-4 should then target SPX2530 +/-5. Micro-5 of all of minute-iii should then set sight to SPX2575+/-5. But, I find this scenario less likely for now.

Once micro-4 and 5 complete we should see a longer and deeper correction for minute-iv and then minute-v will take price to ideally around SPX2600 +/-10p for major-3. My ideal time frame for this top is October 18/19 (+/- 3 days).

My family and I will be traveling to Europe and Russia October 9-22 to visit our relatives, which we haven’t seen for over 2 years. Hence, there will be very few daily updates. Things will return to normal starting October 23. Thank you for your patience and understanding!

 

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