Goldminers (GDX): Finally ready to soar?

Today I wanted to share the weekly chart of the VanEck Vectors Gold miners ETF (GDX), which features my proprietary buy/sell indicator (the A.I.) as well as Elliot Wave count and price targets. I will show how by applying these two techniques, my premium members were able to bank on >70% of profits in 2016 and how now used them again to load up for the next move up.

The A.I. buy/sell indicator is explained in detail here and works on all time-frames. Late-2016 an ideal buy signal was generated (solid green up arrow), which told us to buy. Then in early-2017 another buy signal was generated, albeit not ideal (dotted green up arrow), which allowed us to add more to our positions. Not until August 2016 was a sell-signal generated (all 3 TIs that makeup the A.I. fell below 80; dotted red down arrow) telling us to exit at an average gain of >70%. 🙂 All 3 signals were correct and the sell-signal prevent us from any further losses. Per Elliot Wave we simple bought the start of (black) major-a, rode it the entire way, and sold once major-b got underway. Indeed it doesn’t allow us to nail the tops and bottoms, but it allows us to ride the trend and it’s in following the trend where the real money is always made.

GDX weekly

Then in late-2016 a new A.I. buy signal was generated; right after major-b bottomed. Although price has since tested everybody’s patience and stamina a sell signal, like before, was never generated. Then early-July an ideal A.I. buy signal kicked in telling is to added to our positions. The A.I. thus “told us” to buy (red) intermediate-a/i and -c/v. Since then our gains have already topped 10% and according to the Elliot Wave count, more gains are expected.

Namely, I expect a primary-B high ideally around $38, where major-c = a (black arrow). However, the smaller-degree intermediate-waves suggest a first target of $33 (c=1.62x a) or $36 for a v=i relationship in case the ongoing major-c will consist of 5 intermediate waves. It is at this stage too early too tell where the top will be exactly, but a $36-$38 price range seems a good target. We’ll keep monitoring the weekly A.I. to see if it generates a new sell signal either before or after those prices have been reached, to tell us to exit our positions.

Given that all prior weekly A.I. buy and sell signals were correct I don’t see a reason to expect it to be different this time around. In addition, price has broken above the red down trend line (arrow) signalling a new uptrend. Only a break below $22.50 from current levels price will force me to reconsider my EWT-count. Until then, I expect higher prices, with an interim top at around $25 / $25.50; which is the prior intermediate-a high.

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