Already in May -see here– I showed that using a simply symmetry breakout the S&P500 should reach SPX2485-2500. Early August we got just that and the market has since shaved off 70p. Often simple is indeed best. Premium members both banked on the upside target and were able to exit at that level in a very timely fashion using accurate forecasting and other indicators I track (see here and here).
But, that’s all water under the bridge by now, and the weekly chart of the S&P500 now shows two down weeks, and since 2011 there were 9 occasions with over 2 consecutive week-long corrections (red rectangles); and 11 occasions with only 2 consecutive down weeks (green triangles). In the latter case there was then often a 2-week correction, a bounce week, followed often by 1 to 2 more down weeks.
Hence, odds favor the later type; which is in line with my preferred view of a lower low early this week, for all of intermediate-a and then a rally for intermediate-b. The A.I. and MACD remain on sell; wanting to see lower prices in the weeks ahead.
But, price continues to be above all the weekly SMAs, and those are all still bullishly stacked: price>20w>50w>100w>150w>200w. A drop below the 20w SMA, even with a recovery back above it, would be the first time since late-October 2016, providing further evidence of a larger-scale (major-4) correction; similarly to the Russell2000 (not shown) which is now trading below its 200d SMA for the 1st time since summer last-year.