Two weeks ago the SPY:TLT ration suggested a correction was ahead, see here. Correctly so, but the correction only lasted 2 days and that was all the bears got. Yes, these indicators can correctly foretell of pending market moves, but will not tell us the extent of the move or for how long it will last. That’s up to the forecaster to interpret using other available tools.
Now that the S&P500 is at new ATHs, probabilities suggest the next move to ~SXP2500 is most likely underway as price now shows us that it found support at the 20w SMA and rallied since. The RSI5 and MACD are turning back up; with the former erasing the prior negative divergence. Reassessing the chart I found the lower parallel green trend line to better fit when connected with the 2015 and 2016 lows compared to my prior assessment from February and April: see here and here; respectively. This then increased the symmetry breakout target from SPX2440 to SPX2485, which fits very well with my ideal SPX2480-2490 target zone that I’ve had for many months (see prior links). This is also close to the 2.00x extension of the SPX1991->2194 move from last year, measured from the SPX2084 low made October last year, as well as several ideal Fib-extensions for the recent advance and decline: targeting SPX2485-2500.
Figure 1. SPX weekly TI chart. Divergences creeping in, but will take time to catch on given the weekly time frame.
Note the weekly SMAs continue to bullishly align: all are pointing up and all are bullishly stacked (20>50>100>150>200): longer term uptrend. These therefore suggest that the probability of a possible larger correction are lower compared to the probability of higher prices.