Two weeks ago we reviewed the weekly charts of several indices; see here. We were neutral then as neither the bullish- nor bearish case was proven. We haven’t posted an update since, so question is: what has happened since?
Before we go to the charts we want to stress although we were AWOL, we -dare we say- nailed the SPX2120 to the day: see here. We then questioned the current rally based on the SPY:TLT ratio: see here; and sent an intra-day email minutes after the SPX 2050 low was struck to inform our premium members our initial target from our “go short/inverse ETF at SPX2110” entry level was reached: see email here. Hence, we’ve been busy as usual. 🙂
That said, how do the weekly charts, two weeks later, look. Simple: worse than last week, and worse than two weeks ago..
The weekly SPX chart below shows price was -again- unable to close the key SPX2100 level and now closed below the green ascending trend line, which we pointed out to our premium members last week. That’s another bearish sign. In addition the TIs are pointing down with an initial ideal A.I. sell signal (all 3 lines/TIs directtly below price -black, red and purple- moved down this week from >80: red dotted down arrow). The MACD keeps moving down and the money flow index (3rd TI below price) as well after negative divergence two weeks ago. The weekly chart has now support on a weekly close at the upper red line (SPX 2050), followed by the 20w, 50w and 100w at around 2030-2025. A red week next week will give an ideal A.I. sell signal. The prior ideal sell signal happened last in November 2015. We all know what happened since.
Bottom line: the weekly charts across indices have, per objective analyses, deteriorated again over last week. The Bulls need a serious up week breaking price above long term trendlines and resistance to change these charts in their favor. All the Bears need is one more down week to turn the charts seriously bearish. Hence, we are now 40/60 bullish/bearish.