S&P500 update: timing the market’s lows and highs

Last week in our weekly digest of December 19 we presented to our premium members some interesting Fib-time relationships. We started with the ATH made on May 21. It then took 13 days to get to the first important low (1st blue vertical line, with blue arrow). It then also took 33 days from that high to the SPX 2039 low (2nd red line, with red arrow). Back then we used that time-relationship to determine the late-August; which indeed occurred within a day 🙂 (3rd red line), and which was also close to the 65 day relationship (5th blue line: 5x 13 days); set of blue and red arrows.

Figure 1. SPX daily chart: 8d, 13d Time-Fibs and 33d interval suggested last week -correctly- to look for a low on 12/18-12/21. Next up: December 31.

time fibsContinuing with the 13 day theme, the market then bottomed 91 days after the ATH (7th blue line: 7x 13 days, lower blue arrow) and peaked 119 days since that high for major 1 (9th blue line: 9x 13 days, last upper blue arrow). We then noted that 33 days from the major 1 high was on Monday (12/21; 2nd orange line), while the 4x 8 day (32 day) was on Friday December 18 (4th green line). Price also adhered to this (green) 8-day Fib-relationship mid-November (first green line, green arrow). Not shown here, but we noted that Friday 12/18 was also 13 trading days after the December 1 high. Hence, our 8d, 13d Fib-times and the 33 day trading interval-analyses suggested a low should be made on Friday 12/18 or Monday 12/21. Clearly our analyses was correct as the SPX bottomed on Friday 12/18, while the DOW bottomed on Monday 12/21.

Great, but that’s all history -albeit very accurate- so what’s next? Well, continuing our analyses we find that December 31 is the next Time-fib interval and as such we expect an important turning point then. Our premium members received in this weekend’s update the expected direction of that turn.

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  1. Pingback: Market update: make or break week ahead? | INTELLIGENT INVESTING

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