Is the S&P500 about to drop ~100 points?

Last week we showed that the A/D line was negatively diverging signalling further market weakness. As expected, the S&P500 ended the week down and lost ~50p intra-week. Nothing earth shattering, but proving our point in that keeping an eye on what the A/D line is doing is important. Since that’s now water under the bridge,…

A/D line giving warning signals?

The advance/decline line (A/D) plots changes in the value of the advance-decline index over a certain time period -daily, weekly, or even monthly- and is used to confirm the strength of a current trend and its likelihood of reversing. If the slope of the A/D line is up and the market is trending up too,…

DOW suggested today was expected 

Yesterday we provided the below chart of the DOW with our preferred Elliot Wave count. We found nice Fib-extensions for blue (nano) waves iii and (orange) micro 3.  We now expect the market to retrace to the orange target zone for micro 4, before micro 5 can target ~21000.  So far the futures strongly suggest…

SPX 2350 target reached, what’s next?

In August last year we already shared a very simple symmetry breakout target for the S&P500 of SPX2350, based on its long term chart, see here, and we’ve had this chart available to our premium members for even longer. This week the S&P500 reached that target, see below. Mission accomplished? Can we now sit and…

What does the SPY-TLT ratio tell us?

The ratio between the SPY and the 20+ years treasury bonds ETF -TLT- can foretell of pending larger market corrections as it did in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Namely, what we can observe in those cases is that the ratio of SPY and TLT (SPY:TLT) was negatively diverging from the S&P500 ($SPX) on a large…

NASDAQ Elliot Wave Update

Please find below our preferred Elliot wave count for the NASDAQ (aka $COMPQ). We prefer this index to be minute iii of minor 3 of intermediate iii of major 3 of Primary V. That’s a lot of three’s 😉 but the Fib-extensions for each wave degree overlap rather well. For example; the 200% extension of…