SPY:TLT ratio suggests a pending correction

In February we noticed some very short term negative divergence between the SPY and TLT (the 20+ years treasury bonds ETF ): see here. This short term divergence was negated (divergence is only divergence till it isn’t), as stock markets moved higher. However, large scale negative divergences often foretell of a larger pending correction (see Figure…

S&P500: What is the significance of the next top?

This is a summary of this week’s weekly digest, available to premium members only. Last week’s price action suggests either minor-b of intermediate-iv is underway or minor-1 of intermediate-v. Either way we expect one more rally to SPX2407-2417, with an ideal target of SPX2410 before this up-wave ends. But, a break below SPX2378 without making…

S&P500 remains on track for 2300-2280.

“Less is more.”, “No need to change the winning team.”, “Forewarned is forearmed.” Great sayings that mean nothing is you can’t back them up. Well, starting late-February we already warned of an impending intermediate-term market top and correction, which we then backed up again early-March. See here and here. We then showed the weak weekly…

S&P500 weekly chart remains weak: correction ongoing.

Since late-February, see here, we were one of few that have been correctly foretelling of the ongoing market correction, and haven remained that POV, as it has now lasted 27 days. The Russell2000 underscores our story and POV: it is the small caps index and indicative of a “risk-on” vs “risk-off” market. It has been flat…

S&P500 update: how did we do, and what’s next?

Since “the proof is in the pudding”, and “past performance is [in this case] a guarantee of future results”, and “you are only as good as your last trade” 🙂 let’s first take a look at how well we did in predicting the recent market decline before forecasting what’s next. The chart below shows our…

NDX adds evidence a larger correction is underway

With today’s ugly price action so far, the larger correction we’ve alluded to last week, see here, and even already a month ago: see here, is now taking hold. Note that neither the NYA nor the SPX have gone anywhere over that time frame: forewarned is forearmed and many of our members -including our trading…